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Daily Insights

November 10, 2022

Good morning,

 

The markets are taking a hit this morning with corn down 8 and soybeans down 14.

 

Yesterday’s USDA report lacked any bullish news as ending stocks and production were both raised from the last report. They also made no changes in the exports for corn or beans. Cuts in corn exports will be coming, they just didn’t happen on this report.  They did raise the crop yield .4 bpa for corn and .2 bpa for beans.  The reason from the USDA was very little harvest loss as weather was excellent and the crop was taken out quickly.

USDA export sales were 322,500 mt of wheat, 265,300 mt of corn, 794,800 mt of beans, 13,700 mt of beef and 10,800 mt of pork.  China was a buyer of almost all the beans and none of the corn or wheat.  This is the third time corn sales were below wheat and are dismal.

The USDA Report has come and gone with mixed results.  Ending stocks are tight which will keep prices elevated into the winter.  South American weather will become the driver in beans in the coming months.  High interest rates, low exports and the high dollar will cap rallies.  Basically, prices are going to remain range bound.  Many are looking for a post-harvest rally, but I don’t see it coming like it did the past couple years.

 

Have a Safe Day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

November 9, 2022

Good morning,

 

Markets are lower ahead of todays report. Corn is down 6 and soybeans are down 4.

 

Here are the estimates for today’s report that will be out at 11am.

 

2022/23 US ending stocks (million bu)

November 9 Average Est. USDA October
Corn 1,182 1,215 1,172
Soybeans 220 221 200
Wheat 571 576 576

 

 

2022/23 US Production (million bu)

November 9 Average Est USDA October
Corn
      Production  13,930 13,896 13,895
      Yield  172.3 171.9 171.9
Soybeans  
      Production  4,346 4,327 4,313
      Yield  50.2 50.0 49.8

 

 

 

Have a Safe Day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

 

October 31, 2022

Good morning,

 

Higher markets to open the week with corn up 14 and soybeans up 7.

 

Wheat is up 47 of the news of the closing of the export corridor in the Ukraine.  In a move that is not surprising, Putin announced on Saturday that the safe exit of grain from the Ukraine will end.  This has put the markets up strongly in wheat but is not having the same effect as then the war broke out with limit moves. Traders are aware that some grain can be moved via rail, and you also have to see if new business is booked in the US. Prices out of the US are already high, with the sky-high freight rate and strong US dollar.

 

I don’t expect todays rally to be sustained as this will continue to be an ongoing event until other countries get more involved. Take advantage of the rallies to get additional fall and spring sales on.

 

Have a Safe Day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

October 28, 2022

Good morning,

 

Markets starting the day off weaker with corn down 4 and soybeans down 7.

 

Concerns over another rate hike in November are moving into the markets and has grains, bonds, metals and energy lower to start the day. Strength of the US dollar along with Mississippi River issues are weighing heavily on the US export program.

 

Mexico will reportedly proceed with the GMO corn ban by 2024, according to their Deputy Ag Minister; they are looking to cut U.S. corn imports in half and increase non-GMO shipments from other countries.

 

There has been no traction in the markets as prices have moved sideways for the better part of the month.  I don’t see the market breaking out to the upside with the high dollar, poor exports and better weather in South America.

 

I would advise producers to make sales on any grain that you don’t have space for this fall and look to make some early winter sales on any small rally. Stocks are going to continue to grow with limited demand.

 

Have a Safe weekend!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

 

October 24, 2022

Good morning,

Weaker markets overnight with corn down 5 and soybeans down 13.

Friday afternoon’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report showed all U.S. cattle on feed as of October 1 at 11.449 million head, or 99.1% of last year, basically right on the average trade estimate; September placements came in at 96.2%, slightly below the average 96.4% trade guess, with September marketing’s at 104.0% of LY, in line with the average 104.0% expectation.

The forecast in Brazil and Argentina is wet this morning and will stay that way for the next 10 days. After that the long rang forecast moves back to drier.  There is no evidence of any heat in the forecast or any dome.  Weather in Brazil is ideal, and Argentina is improving.

Harvest is rolling on and today corn should pass the 50% mark.  News is limited this Monday, which mostly leans negative.  Support in the CZ22 has held in the 6.80’s over the past week we’ll see if that is the case today.  At some point I think we will see a larger correction in corn as the funds are holding a large, long position.  Cash basis is tight for corn and beans across the country as farmers have been slow sellers.  I’m not sure this is the best idea as I think you should be a willing seller as the demand picture doesn’t look good for 2023.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

 

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