Good morning,
Grain markets are taking a hit this morning with corn down 4, soybeans down 20 and wheat down 12 to start the day.
The market broke down yesterday when China cancelled slightly more than 12 million bushels of corn purchases from the US. Brazilian harvest is 95% complete at this point and the last of grain is moving to the market at significant discounts to US corn. Brazilian corn is currently at a steep discount to US gulf corn by close to two dollars per bushel. We had been hearing of switching getting done out of US to Brazil and this is the evidence.
Corn planting progress came in at 14% complete yesterday, up from 8% last week, 7% last year, and the 11% five-year average; corn emergence initially came in at 3%, up from 2% both LY and on average. Soybean planting rose from 4% to 9% done, up from 3% LY and the 4% 5YA.
The forecast remains cool for the next 15 days and after current storms move out the weather will be mostly dry. Not much rain is forecast for the Central US over the next 7-10 days. Planting is going to move ahead quickly next week.
With planting rolling along and no premium being given for the potential planting delays in the Dakotas and Minnesota and export cancellations, the tops appear to be in for the time being. We could still see some weather premiums in the coming months, but I would not be surprised to see additional export cancellations which will limit moves.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
