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Daily Insights

March 18, 2024

Good morning,

 

Corn is down 1 and soybeans are down 6 to start the week.

 

Friday afternoon’s CFTC report showed the funds short 254,319 corn and 144,618 soybean contracts.

 

This morning Ukraine’s Ag Ministry estimated 2024 corn planted area at 3.863 million hectares (9.55 mln acres) in their first official forecast, down 4.5% from 4.043 million hectares (10.0 mln ac) last season. Meanwhile, the Ag Ministry reported grain exports at 2.8 MMT so far in March, down from 3.5 MMT from March 1-20 last year; cumulative grain exports since July 1 stand at 32.4 MMT, down from 35.8 MMT last season.

 

After a firm opening last evening, the corn and bean complex have weakened. With the key March 28th report just 8 trading sessions away, producers need to put themselves in a more manageable position before the report. This is especially true for old crop, but “some” new crop sales should also be implemented. In my opinion any acreage number north of 90 million acres is going to result in lower trade. Current old crop prices in the $4.15-$4.30 range are great and should be captured. New crop prices in the $4.40-4.50 range are available and small sales should be made there as well.

 

Have a Safe Day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

March 13, 2024

Good morning,

 

Corn is unchanged and soybeans are down 8 to start the day.

Brazilian government supply agency Conab cut their 2023/24 soybean production estimate from 149.4 to 146.9 MMT, compared to 154.6 MMT last season. Total corn output fell from 113.7 to 112.8 MMT, down from 131.9 MMT last year; second-crop production fell from 88.1 to 87.3 MMT, compared to 102.4 MMT in 2022/23. Wheat output was reduced from 10.2 to 9.6 MMT this month. Total grain production for ‘23/24 fell from 299.8 to 295.6 MMT, down sharply from 319.8 MMT last season.

Argentina saw good rains center-east again over the past 24 hours, shifting into the north/northeast through the weekend and remaining there for the 6–10-day period, with the center-south dry. Brazil was drier yesterday with only isolated action in the far north, with better action north and south over the next five days, and the best chances holding south for the 6-10- day period. Issues will include slowing soybean harvest in the south into that 6-10 day, with dryness affecting safrinha corn in the center-east through next week.

Conab’s surprise production cut early yesterday morning seems to have worn off and the market is struggling this morning. If you are behind on new crop sales, now is probably a good time to get some sales in place. Current new crop prices are in the $4.40-4.50 range.

Have a Safe Day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

 

 

March 13, 2024

Good morning,

 

Corn is unchanged and soybeans are down 8 to start the day.

Brazilian government supply agency Conab cut their 2023/24 soybean production estimate from 149.4 to 146.9 MMT, compared to 154.6 MMT last season. Total corn output fell from 113.7 to 112.8 MMT, down from 131.9 MMT last year; second-crop production fell from 88.1 to 87.3 MMT, compared to 102.4 MMT in 2022/23. Wheat output was reduced from 10.2 to 9.6 MMT this month. Total grain production for ‘23/24 fell from 299.8 to 295.6 MMT, down sharply from 319.8 MMT last season.

Argentina saw good rains center-east again over the past 24 hours, shifting into the north/northeast through the weekend and remaining there for the 6–10-day period, with the center-south dry. Brazil was drier yesterday with only isolated action in the far north, with better action north and south over the next five days, and the best chances holding south for the 6-10- day period. Issues will include slowing soybean harvest in the south into that 6-10 day, with dryness affecting safrinha corn in the center-east through next week.

Conab’s surprise production cut early yesterday morning seems to have worn off and the market is struggling this morning.   If you are behind on new crop sales, now is probably a good time to get some sales in place. Current new crop prices are in the $4.40-4.50 range.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

 

March 11, 2024

Good morning,

Markets are weaker to start the day with corn down 3 and soybeans are down 4.

Argentina saw good rains over the weekend and heavy action continues this week as well, aiding moisture supplies but slowing crop dry down, before a drier 6–10-day period. Rains were widespread in Brazil over the weekend as well, shifting far north and south over the next ten days, allowing safrinha dryness to likely develop in the heart of the country over the next week-plus.

Friday’s report was quiet as expected and the focus will now switch to the March 28th planting intentions. With 3 weeks of no major reports and the funds holding heavy net short positions it may be difficult to see this market move higher in the coming week.

Short covering was a major factor last week and could come further into play as the 3/28 USDA approaches. We will get Brazilian crop updates from CONAB tomorrow. Further strength should be used to make catch-up sales, especially in old corn. Be sure to have offers in place to take advantage of any pre-report rallies as they could be short lived.

Have a Safe Day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

 

 

February 15, 2024

Good morning,

 

Corn is down 2, soybeans are down 3 and wheat is down 4 to start the day.

 

The USDA estimated 2024 U.S. corn plantings at 91.0 million acres in their Ag Forum commodity outlook this morning, down from 94.6 million acres in 2023; yields are initially seen at 181.0 bushels per acre with production at 15.040 billion bushels and carryout at 2.532 billion bu. Soybean acreage came in at 87.5 million ac, up from 83.6 million last year; yields are seen at 52.0 bushels per acre with output at 4.505 billion  bushels and carryout at 435 million bu. All-wheat acreage of 47.0 million would be down from 49.6 million acres in 2023, with yields there at 49.5 bushels per acre, production at 1.9 billion  bushels, and ending stocks at 769 million bushels for 2024/25.

 

Historically the trade doesn’t react too much to the Ag Forum numbers that are released as they are just a guess as to what we will really see. They may influence the March 29th planting intentions a little but ultimately it is what gets planted in April and May and what the yield is in October and November that matter. Historically these numbers are not too far off which means the tone is set for traders over the next couple of months. We are potentially looking at a 2.5+ billion-bushel carryout in corn! That screams sub $4.50 corn to me. Times have changed, but the last time we saw a carryout that high (2005 we had a 2.54 billion bushel) we had the average on farm cash price around $2.05! I don’t think we go to that level, but sub $4 is in the cards for this coming fall if something dramatic doesn’t change.

 

 

Have a Safe Day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com