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Daily Insights

May 18, 2022

Good morning,

The markets are down sharply this morning with corn down 12 soybeans down 5 and wheat down 32.

Rains are falling around the Central US and amounts have been from .20-.80 inches.  So far light rains, with more forecast into Wednesday of next week.  Temps will be on the cool side.  It looks like Iowa, Minnesota and the Dakota’s are going to see their planting window go wide open in the next 10 days as much of the rain into the South and East.  Newly planted crops will start in excellent conditions for Illinois and there is plenty of time to plant soybeans.  Much of the corn has been planted in the past 48 hours.

Monday’s planting progress was exactly what the trade was expecting (49%) which spawns the question whether the US corn yield is less with half of the crop planted in the US by the middle of May and a reasonable planting window for most of the Midwest ahead. Historical performance of years that have made the 49% level by MidMay are not known for below trend yields without a major summer event. One of the greatest deviations from trend to the upside was 2009 which was 48% planted by week 19 (this week). That year the yield was 8% above trend. At the same time the fastest modern planting year on record (2012) was 25% below trend by the final tally due to drought. The takeaway from the progress logged by the government is the yield prospect in the US is very much a 50/50 item based on summer weather.

 

Have a safe day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

 

May 16, 2022

Good morning,

Higher markets to start the week with corn up 18, soybeans up 10 and wheat leading the charge up 60.

India will ban exports of wheat going forward.  India usually grows a wheat crop of close to 100 mmts each year.  Of this they have exported as much 8.2 mmt last year and were projected to do so again.  India is only a factor in exports every few years and they mostly edge the line of deficits.  There have only been about 6 years in the last 20 that India exported more than 3 mmt’s of wheat.

Ukraine spring grain planting was reported as reaching 70% last week but farmers are starting to suspend activities due to shortages of resources, such as fuel and fertilizer, and a lack of overall rain in western regions.

US corn planting is expected to come it at 42% complete this afternoon. ( I personally think we are closer to 60% complete based on what I have seen and heard locally and from producers in IA and IL. ) Planting should make a substantial gain this week as mostly scattered showers are forecast.  We could be off to a better start than most traders know as May planted corn can yield well. (Locally we have seen corn out of the ground in 5 days thanks to ideal conditions.)

It looks to me like we may be hitting the top this week what the market can do. Many “experts” are calling for corn to move into the 8-dollar trading range. This appears to be the ceiling that we cant break thru without some major summer weather issue.

 

Have a Safe Day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

 

May 13, 2022

Good morning,

 

Weaker corn markets this morning as corn is down 10 in old crop and 5 new crop.

Yesterdays USDA report was a snoozer in my opinion as there was nothing exciting to move the markets. Previously the USDA has used the outlook forum yields in this report and yesterday they did not.  The big surprise was using 177 bushels for corn instead of the forum at 181.  They used last year’s final yields for corn and beans at 177 and 51.5.  This brought the carryout down, otherwise we would have been looking at hefty numbers.   The other stuff was mostly in line with average estimates.
Below are the estimates released.

 

USDA 2021/22 US Carryout (billion bu)

  USDA May Ave. Est USDA April
Corn 1.440 1.412 1.440
Soybeans .235 .225 .260
Wheat .655 .686 .678

 

 

USDA 2022/23 US Carryout (billion bu)

  USDA May Ave Est
Corn 1.360 1.352
Soybeans .310 .317
Wheat .619 .659

 

 

It looks like spring wheat is headed towards prevent plant when you look at the forecast.  Some of these acres will be canola and some soybeans.  After last year’s shortfall of a crop this was not what we wanted.  A lot of time highs or lows are made on crop reports and prices return to where they were before the report in the next week.  This probably will be the case here again for corn, beans and Chicago wheat.

HBD

Have a Safe Day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

 

May 11, 2022

Good morning,

 

Stronger markets to start the day with corn up 14 and soybeans up 20.

 

The crop report is out tomorrow, and many expect to see bullish for old crop corn and beans.  The acres will be input in the 2022 balance sheet which will show a heavier ratio of beans planted, which will produce a larger US carryout.  The corn carryout is expected to be bullish and probably something close to this year’s.  We probably peak out corn and wheat either on or ahead of this report.  I don’t think we see something so different that it would be market changing.  The market is already high and holding its range, which it will probably do for the foreseeable future as we have a very important US growing season to get through.

 

The 10-day forecast for US weather is wet for the Dakota’s and Canadian Prairies.  The high-pressure ridge has formed out West pushing moisture up into the Northern Plains.  This high-pressure ridge is intense but will ease off into next week.  Looking at the next 15 days there are only isolated storms popping up across the Midwest.  There is no real organized rain system for all of it.  Planting will progress and it looks like we will see only minor disruption.  It looks like next week there will be a good chance to plant spring wheat as well.  We are late planting but that can change quickly in the next 10 days.

 

Have a Safe Day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

May 4, 2022

Good morning,

 

Weaker markets to open the day with corn down 2 and soybeans down 4 while wheat is up 25.

 

The lead headline this morning are the increased sanctions by the EU against Russia.  The EU has proposed and phased oil embargo against Russia.  The EU would phase out Russian supplies within the next 6 months and refined products by the end of 2022.  The EU has yet to target Russian natural gas, used to heat homes and generate electricity across the bloc.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday is expected to raise interest rates by half of a percentage point and announce the start of reductions to its $9 trillion balance sheet as U.S. central bankers intensify efforts to bring down high inflation.

 

Ukraine’s grain traders union UGA yesterday reported the 2022 spring planting campaign at 31% complete, or 4.7 million hectares (11.6 mln acres); the planned 11.45 mln ha (28.3 mln ac) would be 3.5-4.0 mln ha less than last season. Corn planting stands at 1.27 mln ha out of 3.9 mln ha expected.
The 7 day forecast for US weather is finally a little less wet than its been.  Some holes are opening up in the weather pattern and the rain to the North looks much lighter overall.  The 10 day forecast is still wet and only some areas will see heavy rain.  The extended model dries out a bit as well in the 11-15 day.

 

Have a safe day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

 

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