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Daily Insights

September 20, 2022

Good morning,

 

Corn is up 10 and soybeans are up 7 to start the day.

 

Last nights crop conditions showed 87% of the US crop in the dent stage compared to 88% for the five year average and only 5% behind last years record pace. We also received the first update on corn harvested which showed that 7% of the crop has been taken off compared to 8% on average.

Todays market move appears to be following the news out of Russia. Two Russian-controlled regions in eastern Ukraine announced plans to hold referendums on joining Russia later this week and an ally of President Vladimir Putin said the votes would alter the geopolitical landscape in Moscow’s favor forever. Ukraine and the United States have said such referendums would be an illegal sham and have made clear that they and many other countries would not recognize the results.  It makes it hard to believe the grain corridor will stay open when Russia is trying to annex territory.

Russia named taking full control of Luhansk and the neighboring province of Donetsk as primary goals of what it called its “special military operation” in Ukraine, alleging that Russian speakers there were being persecuted and even shelled by Ukrainian government forces, something Kyiv denied.

The markets are going to remain range bound and I am not sure we will see the harvest rally that many, including myself are anticipating this year. With the funds already long 200,000 corn contracts and the economic environment we are in there is going to be limited money to invest in the markets. My advice is to take advantage of the rallies to make sales on new crop corn.

 

Have a Safe Day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

 

September 14, 2022

Good morning,

 

Markets are lower to start the day with corn down 8 and soybeans unchanged.

 

The CPI numbers came out yesterday and show that core inflation is still rising, and more interest rate hikes are in the cards from the Feds. The DOW reacted by selling off over 1000 points. Corn is tightly connected to energy and economic news and needs good activity to rally or hold ground. Grain prices are high as we have had a good rally ahead of harvest. If the economic woes continue, prices will not maintain their current levels and any sales now will look very good. Make sure you protect yourself by locking in new crop sales for this year’s crop. I would also suggest looking at making sales for the 2023 crop. We are near $6, which may not seem great compared to this past year but may look much different when we get there.

 

Sources reported that multiple U.S. railroads will halt shipments of crops or fertilizers today, a day ahead the potential railway strike; railroads have until a minute after midnight on Friday to reach a deal with 60,000 union workers. The Federal government is “looking into it”, still holding the ability to avert a strike; there is also reports from the Union side that the two sides are “not that far apart” in their negotiations overpay and attendance policies.

The forecast for US weather is clearing out after recent rains.  Most of the Central US will be dry over the next 10 days.  Gulf states will be dry, and harvest will move forward.  Temps will be warm as a ridge is setting up out West again.  Maturity for crops will speed up as we will see a lot of mid 80’s in the next week.

Have a Safe Day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

September 12, 2022

Good morning,

 

Markets are lower to start the day with corn down 5 and soybeans down 5.

 

Traders will be focused on the WASDE that will be out at 11am today. Traders are looking for a reduction in corn yield and a little change in soybeans. This is probably what we get, so I expect the report will be uneventful. Below are the estimates for today’s report.

 

2022/23 Harvested Acreage (million acres)

USDA Sept Average Est. USDA Aug
Corn 80.80 81.686 81.840
Soybeans 86.6 87.288 87.211

 

2022/23 Yield

USDA Sept Average Est. USDA Aug
Corn 172.5 172.5 175.4
Soybeans 50.5 51.5 51.9

 

2022/23 Production

USDA Sept Average Est. USDA Aug
Corn 13.944 14.088 14.359
Soybeans 4.378 4.496 4.531

 

2021/22 Carryout (Billion Bu)

USDA Sept Average Est. USDA Aug
Corn 1.525 1.547 1.530
Soybeans .240 .236 .225

 

2022/23 Carryout

USDA Sept Average Est. USDA Aug
Corn 1.219 1.217 1.388
Soybeans .200 .246.7 .245

 

 

Have a safe day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

 

August 24, 2022

Good morning,

 

Markets were higher overnight with corn up 9 and soybeans up 15.

 

Pro Farmer will move through Illinois and Iowa today.  So far yields have been down from last year just about everywhere they have been.

 

Day two of the Pro Farmer crop tour found Nebraska corn yields at 158.5 bpa, down from 182.35 bpa LY and the 176.7 bpa 3YA; NE pod counts came in at 1,064, down from 1,226 LY and the 1,245 3YA.

Indiana corn yields were 177.85 bpa, down from 193.5 bpa LY and the 178.3 bpa 3YA; soybean pod counts of 1,166 fell below 1,240 LY but did beat out the 1,148 3YA figure.

Since mid-July, more than 93% of Texas has been in drought, according to the United States Drought Monitor. As of mid-August, more than 26% of Texas was at the highest level, characterized by widespread loss of pastures and crops as well as water shortages.  While conditions are especially acute in Texas, about 54% of all U.S. cattle were in some form of drought as of Aug. 16, up from 36% a year earlier. Cattle slaughter is high nationwide, temporarily increasing supply but portending tighter supplies in future years.

With almost all of Texas in drought, ranchers are sending ever more cattle off to slaughter, a trend likely to increase beef prices over the long term due to dwindling supply from the largest cattle region in the United States. This will have an impact on meat prices at the retail level and reduce the feed demand next year.

 

 

Have a Safe Day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

August 23, 2022

Good morning,

 

Markets are higher this morning with corn up 22 and soybeans up 18.

 

Corn ratings fell 2% this week to 55% good/excellent, down from 60% last year and the 62% five-year average; corn silking, doughing, and denting remain behind their respective metrics with maturity initially coming in even with LY and the 5YA at 4%.

 

The Pro Farmer crop tour found average SD corn yields at 118.5 bpa, down from 151.5 bpa last year and the 161.6 bpa three-year average, and the worst since 2012. Average soybean pod counts came in at 871, down from 997 last year and 1,027 on average. The Eastern leg of the tour saw OH corn yields at 174.2 bpa, down from 185.1 bpa LY but above the 169.0 bpa 3YA; soybean pod counts hit 1,132 pods, down from 1,195 LY but above the 1,038 3YA.

 

FSA acreage data showed total acres in the US at 248,861.305 vs 254,182,188 last year.  Corn acres were 86,767,676 million acres down from 91,360,490 last year.  Beans were 86,487,293 vs 86,258,283 last year.  Wheat acres were 47,445,407 vs 49,439,068.  Cotton acres were 13,348,355 vs 10,904,536.  Total prevent plant was 6,386,494.  There were 3 million acres of prevent plant corn, a million beans and a million wheat.

With the CBOT moving higher, basis levels are going to continue to crumble. I would suggest producers lock in basis on any unsold old crop corn!

 

Have a Safe Day!

 

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

 

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