January 5, 2024
Good morning,
Corn is down 3 and soybeans are down 7 to start the day.
Rain in Brazil has been greater than expected which is adding to today’s selloff. With good rainfall forecasted for the next 7 days I don’t look for market support from South America.
This morning’s export sales were dismal, coming in at 14.5 million bushels, which is well below the ten-week average of 52.1 million. US corn is cheap and getting cheaper, but we are still struggling to make sales. The strength of the US dollar, a record South American crop and a lack of world demand are keeping things in check.
With all this negative news and a USDA report coming next Friday that is expected to be bearish stocks, I am hoping something gives. We hit the support level in CH24 ($4.6175) that I was looking for back in November, so hopefully the floor is in. While I am not expecting it, we could see some adjustments to the acres, yield, or demand. (Let’s Hope!!)
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
January 2, 2024
Good morning,
The markets opened lower this morning to start the new year with corn down 4, soybeans down 20 and wheat down 5.
The market has been waiting on rains for Brazil and they are almost certainly coming! All models are aligned with the driest areas of central Brazil looking to receive blanket rains of over 3 inches across the next week with some areas in store for more. This may be coming too late for some of the earlier planted soybeans but overall this rain is very timely. As we have seen many a time the crops can recover surprisingly well, and we would expect no different this time.
The markets ended 2023 with very little to be excited about and it appears that 2024 is at least going to start that way. The commodity markets have a lot of bearish news feeding them right now and it may be a while before we find something to change that. Producers should be talking with their buyers and looking for opportunities to add small premiums to sales with option strategies. The CBOT doesn’t appear that it is going to get exciting and with large US and world stocks, basis levels aren’t going to do much work either.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
December 28, 2023
Good morning,
Grain markets remained quiet this morning with corn unchanged, soybeans up 2 and wheat up 7.
To say the corn market has been struggling to find some bullish news is an understatement. The March futures have traded in a 30-cent window and all sub $5 for the last two months. Finding anything that is going to move it higher, let alone north of $5 in the next couple months is going to be a struggle. With higher US and world stocks compounded with a lack of significant demand and a south American crop that is looking like a record, it could be a tough first quarter for grain.
South American weather, the January 12th USDA Crop Production report and global political wars are the hope to move things higher in the coming months, but they are a long shot.
Producers are advised to take this time to meet with your buyers to discuss what levels are attainable and put firm offers in place. Little moves in the market should be sold as the likelihood of big moves is not realistic in a surplus year. With higher interest rates, carrying costs are much higher than last year and need to be accounted for.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didioninc.com
December 26, 2023
Good morning,
Markets are mixed following the holiday break with corn up 2, wheat up 11 and soybeans down 2.
Weekend rain totals in Brazil were on the light side with most of the coverage either up North or West. The 1–5-day forecast does not have much rain in it, but 10-day period does. This is the same forecast we’ve been seeing for weeks.
Both corn and soybean planting in Argentina saw progress over the last week with soybean planting at 69% complete which is 11% behind the 10-year average but 8% ahead of last year. Corn planting was 59% complete, which is 12% behind the 10-year average but 7% ahead of last year.
Look for trade volume to be light this week with fewer traders during the holiday season. This could lead to more volatility if there is any bullish or bearish news.
Have a safe day!
Garry Gard
608-217-6592
December 18, 2023
Good morning,
Corn is down 3, soybeans are down 1 and wheat is down 6 to start the week.
AgRural reported Brazilian soybean planting at 94% complete as of Thursday, up three points on the week, but down from previous seasons where the planting campaign was already complete at this point.
Brazil was mostly dry over the weekend while Argentina saw beneficial rains.
Limited rain for Northern Brazil are forecasted to begin mid-week and bring some degree of relief. One to two inches of rain are forecast to move into the driest areas.
Price movement this week will depend on the rain amounts into Northern Brazil. It was hot over the weekend with temps hitting as high as 108 degrees. This rain needs to fall, or the crop will take turn for the worse after all of this heat.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
