Markets are quiet this morning with corn up 1 and soybeans down 2. Traders continue to try to access the poor conditions in the Northern plains and western belt and how much it will lower national yields for corn and soybeans.
The latest 6-10- and 8-14-day forecasts have milder temperatures for most of the Midwest but below normal precipitation. For the Northern plains. This years crop conditions are 64% G/E compared to 72% G/E last year. While no two years are the same and there are many variables, its worth noting that last year’s national yield was 172 bpa in corn and the USDA is projecting 179.5 this year. I’m not saying that we can’t hit the 179.5 or even higher, but we need several areas to come in above average to make up for the lost production in the west.
I don’t believe it will be at the 2021 pace, but the US will continue to export corn to China in 2022 as they continue to build inventory. The poor South American crop this year will result in additional sales from the US but probably won’t hit the balance sheet until Spring/Summer of 2022. The USDA reduced its projection for 2022 exports by 350 million compared to 2021 in the most recent S&D report. This reduction resulted in a 1.432 billion bu carryout. This is still a huge carryout number, but as we have seen this year, traders run the market higher the closer we get to 1.0 billion.
Producers that still need to make sales for fall delivery should get them made soon. The markets will trade lower long before the weather changes, so you have to be proactive. $5.25 out of the field, more than pays the bills and allows you to keep doing what you love. Waiting for more only cost you in the long run.
Have a Safe Day!