The corn market found some strength last week on the heels of an acreage report larger than the estimates and the implementation of tariffs. May and July futures ended the week 7 cents higher while December finished the week 4 cents higher. Following the updated CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) report on Tuesday, the funds are now long 156,433 corn and short 17,681 soybean contracts. The length in corn is triple their position from a week ago indicating that the funds appear to be putting money back into the grain markets following tariff news.
The tariffs went on last Wednesday with 10% going against all goods coming into the US from all countries and China being hit with a 54% tariff on all goods entering the US. Among close U.S. allies, the European Union was targeted with a 20% rate, Japan with 24%, South Korea with 25% and Taiwan with 32%. Even some tiny territories and uninhabited islands in the Antarctic were hit by tariffs, according to a list posted by the White House.
On Friday China announced additional tariffs of 34% on U.S. goods, the most serious escalation in a trade war with President Trump that triggered a global stock market collapse. China added 11 entities to the “unreliable entity” list, which allows Beijing to take punitive actions against foreign entities, including firms linked to arms sales to democratically governed Taiwan, which China claims as part of its territory. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, crude oil and soybeans all fell hard following this news. I believe corn remained firm because the US does not export much corn to China.
On Monday the USDA released their March 1st grain stocks and the Prospective plantings reports. Stocks for corn, soybeans and wheat all came in as expected with both soybeans and wheat having larger stocks than a year ago. Planting intentions for corn came in 1 million acres above the average guess, but near the 95-million-acre level that I believed the market was trading.
March 1 Stocks (Billion Bushels)
| March 2025 | Average Estimate | Estimate Range | March 2024 | |
| Corn | 8.151 | 8.151 | 5.050-8.311 | 8.352 |
| Soybeans | 1.910 | 1.901 | 1.823-2.015 | 1.845 |
| Wheat | 1.237 | 1.215 | 1.125-1.252 | 1.089 |
USDA 2025 Prospective Plantings
| March 2025 | Average Estimate | Estimate Range | Final 2024 | |
| Corn | 95.326 | 94.361 | 92.5-96.6 | 90.6 |
| Soybeans | 83.495 | 83.762 | 82.5-85.5 | 87.1 |
| All Wheat | 45.350 | 46.475 | 45.4-47.8 | 46.1 |
We will get the April Crop Production report on Thursday. We are not expecting many surprises here unless the government decides to make some guesses about exports in response to tariffs.
USDA 2024/25 US Carryout (billion bushels)
| USDA April 2025 | Average Trade Estimate | USDA March 2025 | |
| Corn | 1.510 | 1.540 | |
| Soybeans | .379 | .380 | |
| Wheat | .825 | .819 |
USDA 2024/25 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)
| USDA April 2025 | Average Trade Estimate | USDA March 2025 | |
| Corn | 28.20 | 288.90 | |
| Soybeans | 122.10 | 121.40 | |
| Wheat | 260.40 | 260.10 |
With the large March planting intentions number behind us, traders will begin to monitor US weather for the upcoming planting season and continue to monitor the daily tariff discussions. We will begin to get our weekly crop progress reports on Monday afternoon that will give us an indication of how planting is progressing in the US. Look for the first few weeks of this report to be quiet, but things should ramp up after Easter weekend in the Midwest.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 4/7/2025 | Crop Progress |
| 4/9/2025 | Crop Production |
