In a shortened week of trade, we saw corn futures pullback with May and July futures closing 8 and 7 cents lower respectively. December futures managed to close 2 cents higher on the heels of a slightly slower planting pace this past week.
US corn planting progress came in at 4% complete last week (4/13/25) and was double the previous week’s pace but behind 6% last year, 5% on average, and the 6% trade estimate. Soybean plantings were initially reported at 2%, even with the five-year average but behind 3% both LY and as expected. I look for Monday nights (4/21/25) progress to show a nice bump in corn planting with reports of significant progress across Iowa and Nebraska last week.
We are halfway through the pollination period for Brazil’s Safrinha corn crop. There were concerns about dry weather, especially in the state of Mato Grosso, but the rain came at the right time. The next 14-day forecast is ideal for this time of year. Moderate temperatures with above-average rainfall have been seen in three of the four major producing states since the beginning of the critical pollination timeframe. April has had the most positive weather since the season began. This is overall supportive of the estimated trendline yield.
There continues to be a lot of news around tariffs, but it had very little impact on the grain markets this past week. Japan and the US continue to negotiate face to face with President Trump calling the talks productive. Trump also highlighted his phone calls with the president of Mexico as productive. The tariffs haven’t impacted the top two destinations for US corn so far. I feel that if Mexico is willing to negotiate, we will continue to see decent corn exports, at least until the South American crop hits the pipeline.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 4/21/2025 | Crop Progress |
| 5/12/2025 | Crop Production |
