The corn market was under pressure last week with near perfect planting conditions across the country over the last 7 days and improving South American crop conditions. July corn closed 19 cents lower while September and December futures lost 11 and 8 cents respectively. The funds have completely exited their long position in corn and are now short 10,981 contracts. They are currently long 31,728 soybean contracts.
This weekend the United States and China reached a preliminary trade agreement following two days of intensive negotiations. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer led the American delegation, while Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng represented China. The talks aimed to address the escalating trade war that had seen the U.S. impose tariffs up to 145% on Chinese imports and China retaliate with 125% tariffs on U.S. goods. Specific details of the agreement are set to be released on Monday. The deal focuses on reducing the significant U.S. trade deficit with China, which stands at approximately $295 billion. The agreement also seeks to resolve issues related to intellectual property theft, currency manipulation, and forced technology transfers—concerns that have long strained U.S.-China trade relations. This development is seen as a significant step toward de-escalating trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies
Last week’s crop progress showed US corn planting 40% complete compared to 24% the previous week and 39% on average. With favorable weather over the last 7 days, we should see these numbers significantly higher in this afternoons report.
On Monday at 11AM the USDA will release its monthly WASDE report which will give us a look at the 2024/25 and the 2025/26 carryout estimates. Expectations are for lower stocks in 2024/25 due to the strong export pace we have seen. 2025/26 ending stocks are estimated to be over 2 billion bushels due to the projected size of this year’s crops in the US and South America. These numbers are estimates based on potential acres, yields and demand. Keep in mind that a year ago we were well over 2 billion bushels with expectations and are now sub 1.5 billion.
USDA 2024/25 US Carryout (Billion Bushels
| USDA May 2025 | Average Trade Estimate | USDA April 2025 | |
| Corn | 1.443 | 1.465 | |
| Soybeans | .369 | .375 | |
| Wheat | .850 | .846 |
USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels
| USDA May 2025 | Average Trade Estimate | USDA April 2025 | |
| Corn | 2.020 | N/A | |
| Soybeans | .362 | N/A | |
| Wheat | .863 | N/A |
USDA 2024/25 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)
| USDA May 2025 | Average Trade Estimate | USDA April 2025 | |
| Corn | 287.07 | 287.65 | |
| Soybeans | 122.50 | 122.47 | |
| Wheat | 261.00 | 260.70 |
USDA 2025/26 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)
| USDA May 2025 | Average Trade Estimate | USDA April 2025 | |
| Corn | 297.36 | N/A | |
| Soybeans | 126.02 | N/A | |
| Wheat | 261.20 | N/A |
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 5/12/2025 | Crop Progress |
| 5/12/2025 | Crop Production |
