Old crop corn found some support late in the week following favorable trade negotiations with China a bullish USDA report and a stronger soybean market while new crop prices continued lower. July corn ended the week 2 cents higher while September and December futures were 5 and 6 cents lower for the week. The funds went home short 167,143 corn contracts and long 52,071 soybean contracts.
Early last week there was a meeting between US and Chinese officials that appeared to be positive. A framework was put into place that will further trade and discussion between the two countries. The potential agreement that was discussed and now in the hands of President Trump and Chinese President Xi for decision had nothing to do with grain or Ag products in general. The biggest part of the agreement is that rare earth metals would be provided to the US by China and Chinese students would be able to attend US colleges. The US would collect 55% tariffs on Chinese goods while China would collect 10% tariffs on US goods. Despite no reference to Ag products, the discussions were positive and show potential to move forward.
On Thursday the USDA released their June WASDE which had very few changes from the May report. The corn 2025/26 balance sheet called for lower beginning and ending stocks. Beginning stocks were lowered by 50 million bushels based on an increase in old crop exports. No changes were made to production or new crop use categories. Ending stocks were lowered to 1.750 billion bushels. This was lower than the average pre-report estimate of 1.792 billion bushels but within the range of estimates. Global corn production increased while foreign ending stocks decreased.
USDA 2024/25 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| USDA June | Average Est. | USDA May | |
| Corn | 1.365 | 1.392 | 1.415 |
| Soybeans | .350 | .351 | .350 |
| Wheat | .841 | .842 | .841 |
USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| USDA June | Average Est. | USDA May | |
| Corn | 1.750 | 1.792 | 1.800 |
| Soybeans | .295 | .298 | .295 |
| Wheat | .898 | .924 | .923 |
USDA 2025/26 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)
| USDA June | Average Est. | USDA May | |
| Corn | 275.24 | 278.80 | 277.84 |
| Soybeans | 125.30 | 124.54 | 124.33 |
| Wheat | 262.75 | 265.06 | 265.73 |
Weekly crop conditions showed 71% of the corn crop in the Good/Excellent category which is just below the five-year average and 3% behind last year.
Despite a 2024/25 ending stocks number that is now below 9% stocks to use, the trade appears content with the perception that the 2025/26 US crop is going to refill the pipeline. The USDA’s June 30th report will give us a lot more information and will most likely result in more market movement than this past week’s report. The June 30th report will update planted acres as well as yield projections for the 2025 crop. Will we break the recent trend and return to seasonal patterns or is this year the anomaly is TBD.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 6/19/2025 | No markets |
| 6/30/2025 | Acreage/Quarterly Stocks |
