Favorable weather, weaker energy markets and political news pulled corn lower this past week. September and December futures ended the week 14 cents lower while March futures lost 15 cents. Following Fridays buying and CFTC report the funds are short 173,396 corn contracts and long 36,396 soybean contracts.
News of the US attacks in Iran did not generate the market reaction that I expected. Iran responded to the US attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities by launching missiles at U.S. bases in the Middle East. Normally, one would expect this to be bullish news for the crude oil markets, but those markets ended up lower on the week. The trade appears to have the opinion that the retaliatory strikes were just a token response and will not be enough to escalate the US involvement at this time.
There was additional news out of Washington for the bears and the bulls last week. President Trump announced he had signed a trade deal with China but provided no details about the agreement. Traders don’t know if the deal is binding or tied to Ag exports but there was a general enthusiasm that a deal being done would mean a lowering of tariffs and improved trade relations. On the flip side, President Trump announced that trade talks with Canada were cut off due to its announced digital tax on American Tech Companies. The US does significant cross-border trade in agricultural goods with Canada, especially ethanol. Look for more news to come on these relations in the next week.
The USDA will release their Quarterly stocks and Acreage report on Monday. I am looking for grain stocks to be friendly the markets as demand has been strong and I think the size of last year’s crop has been overstated. Acreage should come in line with trade estimates. Estimates for Monday’s report is listed below.
USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks (Billion Bushels)
| June 30th 2025 | Average Est. | March 30th 2025 | June 30th 2024 | |
| Corn | 4.64 | 8.15 | 4.997 | |
| Soybeans | .98 | 1.91 | .97 | |
| Wheat | .84 | 1.23 | .696 |
USDA Planted Acreage (Million Acres)
| June 30th 2025 | Average Est. | March 30th 2025 | Final 2024 | |
| Corn | 95.24 | 95.32 | 90.95 | |
| Soybeans | 83.64 | 83.49 | 87.05 | |
| Wheat | 45.41 | 45.35 | 46.07 |
Weekly crop conditions showed 70% of the corn crop in the Good/Excellent category, which is slightly down from last week but ahead of last year and the five-year average.
The markets historically don’t bottom until September, but if Monday’s report doesn’t give us anything too bearish, we could have a low in for the short term. Long term I believe new crop prices will continue to trend lower.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 6/30/2025 | Acreage/Quarterly Stocks |
