Another week of bearish news or lack of bullish news had the markets on the run. September, December and March futures all ended the week about 25 cents lower. Coming out of the July 4th weekend we had favorable growing conditions with several areas receiving rain that outperformed forecasts and more on the way. This coupled with President Trump announcing new tariffs had the markets gap lower on Monday and continue the selloff throughout the week. The funds ended the week short 171,287 corn contracts and short 6,816 soybean contracts.
President Trump announced that two of the US’s biggest corn buyers would face a 25% tariff imposed starting August 1st. The president believes the two countries were not removing their tariffs against US goods or making progress in negotiations. The 25% level is a starting point against South Korea and Japan (and will be adjusted upward if there is a retaliatory action taken). The form letter sent to the two nations indicated the 25% level can be reduced according to the removal of trade barriers to US goods. Japan has been the second largest destination for US corn behind Mexico while South Korea is the fourth largest importer of US corn. Combined these two countries have accounted for more than 800 million bushels this year.
On Friday the USDA released their July WASDE which was in line with analysts’ pre-report estimates. Beginning stocks were cut by 25 million bushels to 1.3 billion as an increase in old crop exports offset a reduction in feed use. New crop production was reduced by 115 million bushels due to lower planted and harvested acres.
USDA 2024/25 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| July 2025 | Average Trade Est. | June 2025 | |
| Corn | 1.340 | 1.353 | 1.365 |
| Soybeans | .350 | .358 | .350 |
USDA 2025 US Production (Billion Bushels)
| July 2025 | Average Trade Est. | June 2025 | |
| Corn | 15.705 | 15.731 | 15.820 |
| Soybeans | 4.335 | 4.334 | 4.340 |
USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| July 2025 | Average Trade Est. | June 2025 | |
| Corn | 1.660 | 1.720 | 1.750 |
| Soybeans | .310 | .302 | .395 |
| Wheat | .890 | .895 | .898 |
Weekly crop conditions showed 74% of the corn crop in the Good/Excellent category, which is up 1% from last week and ahead of last year and the five-year average by 9%
Traders are going to focus on two things over the next few weeks, US Weather and Trade relations (Tariffs).
Weather can still have a negative impact on the size of this year’s crop, but it is quickly running out of time to do it. I believe the market is currently trading 185-187 bushel per acre yield, so there is a greater risk to the downside. Trade relations could be clearer in the next two weeks if President Trump sticks to his August 1st deadline. I look for a mixed bag on this front. Some countries will work out deals with the US while others will stall and have tariffs increased or deadlines extended.
Historically the CBOT bottoms out in August/September and we grind higher after that. This year may be the exception where we set our lows in July. We are about 12 cents away from a key support level of $3.99 CZ25. I would not be surprised to see this taken out in the next week or two before we trend higher. As mentioned above, the risk of the crop getting smaller is greater than it increasing at this point.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 7/14/2025 | Weekly Crop Conditions |
| 8/12/2025 | Crop Production |
