Corn continued to grind lower last week with favorable weather, crop conditions and traders’ confidence in a record US crop as we enter August. September futures closed 10 cents lower while December and March futures closed 8 cents lower last week. The funds ended the week short 141,944 corn and 38,772 soybean contracts.
Weather across the US looks to be near normal with below normal precipitation in the 5–10-day range. A period of hotter and drier temperatures are expected in the 10–15-day forecasts. Several areas across the corn belt could benefit from some dryer weather in the coming week or two.
December and March futures each lost 12 cents during the month of July, although it seemed like a lot more. The December low at $4.075 from a couple weeks ago remains intact but may get tested before the next WASDE report. I think the funds are going to continue to hold on to their short positions until we start to see some new crop producer sales. The US producer is staring at a record crop with very few sales on the books. In my opinion this is telling the funds to hold onto their short positions as the market could trend lower. I think the traders are currently trading a 186 bpa yield. We may see that number printed a few times by the USDA in the coming months, but I think we will be below that in the final report that comes in January. I would still advise anyone needing to put on coverage for Q4 of 2025 and Q1 of 2026 to take advantage of current prices, as we are always one political headline away from the markets doing an about face!
Corn condition ratings came in at 73% good/excellent. This is above last year’s 68% and the 64% five-year average. Corn silking and doughing remained roughly in line with the five-year averages at 76% and 26% respectively.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 8/4/2025 | Weekly Crop Conditions |
| 8/12/2025 | Crop Production |
