The corn market made new contract lows following Tuesdays WASDE report but managed to bounce off the mat and end the week on a strong note. September futures ended 1 cent higher for the week while December and March futures ended unchanged. The funds ended the week short 119,339 corn and short 20,233 soybean contracts.
Tuesdays USDA report gave the markets a lot of bearish news beginning with a massive 188.8 bpa (bushel per acre) corn yield. This was 4.5 bpa better than the average trade estimate. This also beat last year’s record yield by 9.5 bpa. State records are expected in 7 of the top 10 corn producing states. Iowa, the top corn producing state in the country, would best last year’s record by 11 bpa at 222 bpa.
In addition to the increase in yield, planted acreage was bumped to match the highest acreage ever planted to corn. Planted and harvested acres were raised to 97.3 (+2.1) and 88.7 (+1.9) million, respectively. If realized, U.S. production would be 1.4 billion bushels more than the prior record set in 2023-24.
USDA 2024/25 Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| USDA August | Average Trade Est. | USDA July | |
| Corn | 1.305 | 1.321 | 1.340 |
| Soybeans | .330 | .347 | .350 |
USDA 2025 Yield (Bushels per Acre)
| USDA August | Average Trade Est. | USDA July | |
| Corn | 188.8 | 184.29 | 181.0 |
| Soybeans | 53.6 | 52.9 | 52.5 |
USDA 2025/26 Production (Billion Bushels)
| USDA August | Average Trade Est. | USDA July | |
| Corn | 16.742 | 15.979 | 15.705 |
| Soybeans | 4.292 | 4.365 | 4.335 |
USDA 2025/26 Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| USDA August | Average Trade Est. | USDA July | |
| Corn | 2.117 | 1.902 | 1.660 |
| Soybeans | .290 | .349 | .310 |
| Wheat | .869 | .882 | .890 |
On Monday the United States and China have extended a tariff truce for another 90 days, staving off triple-digit duties on each other’s goods as U.S. retailers get ready to ramp up inventories ahead of the critical end-of-year holiday season. Most expected this move to happen as the two countries continue to have dialog only at a slower pace than desired.
Pro Farmer will conduct their popular crop tour starting on Monday 8/18/25 in Indiana and Nebraska and wrapping up on Thursday 8/21/2025 in Minnesota. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour provides insights into potential corn and soybean production and gathers data from 2,000+ fields across Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio and South Dakota.
The big yield and added acres were absorbed well by the market as the market couldn’t breach new lows after the report on Tuesday. The market appeared to gather some upward momentum late in the week as the shock of Tuesdays report wore off. Some technicians noted the increased volume of trade as prices climbed on Friday showing upward momentum. I believe Tuesdays yield is the biggest we will see for the year and when the final report is handed out in January, we will be back down to 184 bpa. This will still be a record crop, but not as bearish as the number we saw this week. I look for the markets to trade sideways to higher in the next few weeks.
Corn condition ratings came in at 72% good/excellent. This is above last year’s 67% and the 63% five-year average. Corn silking and doughing remained roughly in line with the five-year averages at 94% and 58% respectively.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 8/18/2025 | Weekly Crop Conditions |
| 8/18-8/21/2025 | Pro Farmer Crop Tour |
| 9/12/2025 | Crop Production |
| 9/30/2025 | Grain Stocks |
