Trade was quiet last week as traders returned from the Labor Day weekend. December corn ended the week 2 cents lower while March and May futures lost 1 cent. The funds ended the week short 93,197 corn and long 6,416 soybean contracts.
While the markets were quite last week, there were a few noteworthy items that could impact the markets long term.
The first came when The White House announced that President Trump had signed an Executive Order to officially implement the new U.S.–Japan trade agreement. As part of the deal, Japan is moving to expedite a 75% increase in U.S. rice purchases, while the U.S. will apply a baseline 15% tariff on nearly all Japanese imports. In addition, the two countries issued a memorandum of understanding outlining $550 billion in planned Japanese investments in the U.S., to be carried out through January 19, 2029, underscoring both the trade and investment dimensions of the accord. While the rice deal may not directly impact corn, it sets the stage for additional commodities to be purchased. Japan was the second largest importer of US corn with 532 million bushels purchased of the 2024/25 crop.
Private analysts StoneX and Allendale released their farmer survey results for this year’s crop. StoneX estimated the national corn yield at 186.9 bushels per acre compared to the USDA’s 188.8 that was released in August. Allendale estimated the corn yield at 187.5 bushels per acre, which was also below the USDA’s estimate. Dry weather in August and the prevalence of disease (southern rust) hitting corn fields are the reasons we may be looking at a smaller crop than the USDA estimated. Southern Rust has been showing up in many areas of the northern corn belt over the last several weeks. This disease thrives in warm, wet conditions and is spread by the wind blowing spores. Rust prematurely kills the plant leading to diminished grain fill and stock rot that can cause the plant to fall. It is too early to determine the impact this disease may have on the final yield, but losses are expected.
With the flip of the calendar to September we will begin to get yield reports from some of the major corn growing states. I am aware of combines rolling in IA, IL and IN and look for reports to start rolling out next week.
We didn’t lose much ground last week, and I still look at $4.3275 for the CZ25 (December futures) as the next target. The lows are historically set in late August and the first week of September so we will know real soon if this trend continues.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 9/12/2025 | Crop Production |
| 9/30/2025 | Grain Stocks |
