The markets ended on a strong note last week, closing 10 higher in Friday’s trade despite a neutral USDA report. December corn ended the week 12 cents higher while March and May futures ended the week 11 and 10 cents higher respectively. The funds reduced their corn short position ending the week short 76,593 contracts. They are currently short 7,382 soybean contracts.
Friday’s report was neutral for corn as the domestic balance sheet calls for larger supplies, larger exports and slightly smaller ending stocks. Corn yield was lowered to 186.7 bushels per acre versus the 188.8 we saw in August. Harvested acreage increased from 88.6 million acres in August to 90.0 in September.
Total production was higher as a 2.1-bushel reduction in yield was more than offset by a 1.3 million acre increase in harvested area. Exports were raised by 100 million bushels to 2.975 billion, which offset all the increased production. Ending stocks were reduced slightly to 2.110 billion bushels. Global corn production was lowered slightly, primarily on decreases in the EU and Russia. Global corn ending stocks were lowered to 281.4 million metric tons. This was slightly below analysts’ average pre-report estimate of 282.8 million metric tons but within the range of estimates (279.7 to 287.6 million range).
USDA 2025 US Yield (Bushels per Acre)
| USDA September 2025 | Average Trade Estimate | USDA August 2025 | |
| Corn | 186.7 | 186.2 | 188.8 |
| Soybeans | 53.5 | 53.3 | 53.6 |
USDA 2025 US Harvested Acreage (Million Acres)
| USDA September 2025 | Average Trade Estimate | USDA August 2025 | |
| Corn | 90.0 | 88.705 | 88.691 |
| Soybeans | 80.30 | 80.129 | 80.104 |
USDA 2024/25 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| USDA September 2025 | Average Trade Estimate | USDA August 2025 | |
| Corn | 1.325 | 1.311 | 1.305 |
| Soybeans | .330 | .328 | .330 |
USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| USDA September 2025 | Average Trade Estimate | USDA August 2025 | |
| Corn | 2.110 | 2.011 | 2.117 |
| Soybeans | .300 | .288 | .290 |
| Wheat | .844 | .865 | .869 |
While the report was neutral to bearish, the market seems to be excited about TS Bessent’s upcoming meeting with China’s Vice Premier this week in Madrid. The market had similar reactions on 7/2, 7/18, and 8/11 to upcoming meetings. It is worth noting, two of these rallies were followed by swift selloffs when deals did not materialize.
I feel it is important to keep in mind that Fridays yield report is based on early harvest and limited physical sampling. A lot of the test weights that are used in the sampling are presuming good ear fill down the stretch. With the dryer weather we have had over the last month, I would anticipate test weights to come in lighter than those used in the sampling assumptions. I look for a further reduction in yield due to test weights and am sticking to my estimate of 184.0 bushel per acre when we get the final report in January.
With Friday’s rally, we closed only .0275 cents off of the gap in CZ25 that I mentioned last week as the next target. Mondays open and close will be a good indicator if this recent strength holds through harvest.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 9/30/2025 | Grain Stocks |
| 10/9/2025 | Crop Production |
