There was a lot of bullish activity in the markets last week leading up to the meeting between President Trump and President Xi. Following the meeting trade volume slowed, and we saw a slight selloff, but remained positive for the week. December corn closed 8 higher while March and May futures closed 7 and 6 cents higher respectively. The funds reduced their short position in corn by almost 30,000 contracts and are now short 56,323. They added over 80,000 contracts to their bean position and are long 113,258.
Late last week the two Presidents met as planned in South Korea and reportedly came to an agreement on several things. The US agreed to trim tariffs on China in exchange for Beijing cracking down on the illicit fentanyl trade, resuming US soybean purchases and keeping rare earth metal exports flowing. The market mover for agricultural commodities was that China has agreed to buy 12 million metric tonnes of soybeans this year and 25 million metric tonnes for the next three years. This news rallied the soybean market which spilled over into the corn and wheat markets.
With last week’s rally, we were able to fill the CZ25 gap created back in July at $4.3275. As I mentioned last week, I look for $4.50 as the next target for CZ25. Historically the markets tend to move lower to start the month of November before trending higher into the first of the year. With bullish news on the trade front, we could see this climb start earlier than normal. My only hesitation on a stronger board price hinges on details and execution of the Chinese deal. They may be back buying US soybeans, but is it too late and will they comply with the recent agreement?
Following the weekend activity across the Midwest I would estimate harvest progress to be 80% complete compared to 91% last year and 85% on average. Locally I would estimate we are 65% complete, which would trail last year’s 81% but is still ahead of the five-year average of 49%.
Basis in the east is strengthening as harvest has wrapped up, and the producer has bushels put away. Western basis levels are still wide as harvest is still in progress, the crop was better, and demand was absent during harvest. With significant ground piles that need to be picked up, I look for basis to remain wide in the west until the grain starts to move to export channels or basis in the east is strong enough to pull it that direction.
The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) has said they will be releasing their November Crop Production report on November 14th. This report was originally scheduled for release on November 10th. This is positive news as most were anticipating this report would not be released as the government is still shut down.
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| Date | Report |
| 11/14/2025 | Crop Production |
