We saw a lot of activity in the corn market last week, but the net result was minimal as traders contemplate and wait to see what happens on the China trade front. December corn ended the week 4 cents lower while March and May each ended the week 2 lower. The funds are estimated to be short 57,323 corn and long 132,258 soybean contracts.
Traders focus last week was on the Supreme Courts pending decision regarding Trump-era tariffs. Recent comments suggest concerns about the legitimacy of the “hammer” approach, which involves the executive branch implementing tariffs. While the President has broad control, previous Senate votes struck down certain tariffs, which could indicate potential legislative challenges if the Supreme Court requires Congressional approval for full implementation. This uncertainty leaves all tariff items in limbo and likely delays counterparty actions. With the tariffs in limbo, the Chinese have not been active buyers as they wait to see if they need to sign or comply with their recent verbal agreement to procure goods from the US.
This Friday November 14th we are expecting to see the much-anticipated WASDE report. There hasn’t been a WASDE report since September 12th and there has been a mountain of grain activity in the US and around the world since then. As you recall, we did not receive the scheduled October report due to the government shutdown.
Some private analysts released their estimates on yield last week and most continue to expect a yield in the 185-186 bushel per acre area on corn and 53.5 bushel per acre for soybeans. In September the USDA gave us a 186.7 corn yield estimate and 53.5 soybean yield estimate. We have harvested a lot of acres since that September report and during the early part of the harvest, we were hearing a lot of “disappointed” or “good, but not as good as last year” comments from producers in the south and south east (Southern Indiana, Southern Ohio, Southern Illinois and South-central Iowa. As harvest moved further west and north, it seems the reports have shifted to much better than expected and record crop comments.
I am going to question the accuracy of this month’s report as I don’t see how accurate it can be given the skeleton crew that is still working at certain government agencies and the limited time they have had to prepare.
There are a lot of market movers on the horizon this week and in the coming weeks that we need to pay close attention to. Fridays WASDE report, Supreme Court decision on Trump tariffs, potential end to the Government shutdown are the big three on my radar. All of these could offer opportunities depending on how they go and what side you are on. I would advise playing your position as close to neutral as possible. Have sales or purchases on for a portion of your needs and take advantage of any opportunities that may arise.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 11/14/2025 | Crop Production |
