Week Ending 12/12/2025

Another week of sideways trade as the USDA’s WASDE report failed to give the markets any short-term direction. Weather in South America continues to be favorable, especially in Brazil which is keeping long term pressure on the markets. March futures ended the week 4 lower while May and July futures both closed 3 cents lower. Funds are estimated to be long 34,788 corn and long 169,477 soybean contracts. The CFTC reports are now caught up through November 18^th, and we have seen a significant change in the corn position they are holding.

Last week’s WASDE report was bullish for corn, neutral for soybeans, and neutral to negative for wheat relative to pre-report expectations. The January report now holds the potential for more changes to the balance sheet given the release of final production and quarterly stocks. The USDA made minor adjustments to corn exports (increased 125 million bushels) this month to supply and demand forecasts. Below are the numbers from last week’s report.

USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2025/26 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

The year is quickly coming to an end as we have just over 11 days of trade left in 2025. The market will continue focus on developing South American crops and production potential along with monitoring the pace of soybean sales and shipments to China with expectations for significant volumes in the coming weeks. Traders will have to wait until the January 12th crop production and grain stocks report to see if any of the expected changes will be made to the balance sheet.  CFTC and export numbers are expected to be caught up by the end of December, which is a month earlier than originally reported.

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