There were a lot of potential news stories in the markets this past week but ultimately it was the lack of news that moved the market. A neutral to bullish USDA report, approval of E-15 and positive meetings between President trump and Xi were all positive. Ultimately the lack of any new business with China was what moved the markets lower to end the week. July corn ended the week 16 cents lower while December corn lost 13 cents. The funds ended the week-long 235,120 corn and long 161,023soybean contracts.

On Tuesday the USDA released their May WASDE. This report was considered bullish for wheat and soybeans while neutral for corn. For corn, USDA’s first 2026/27 balance sheet held few surprises. Production is forecast at 15.995 billion bushels, slightly above pre-report estimates at 15.948 billion bushels. National average yields are initially pegged at a weather-adjusted trend of 183.0 and are subject to change as the growing season advances. On the demand side of the balance sheet, exports are lowered by 150 million bushels from the 2025/26 crop year likely due to smaller expected production. While exports are projected to be lower than last season, if realized, this forecast would be the second largest on record. USDA also pegs feed and residual use down from prior year due to smaller supplies. Initial new-crop ending stocks are forecast at 1.957 billion bushels, down 170 million bushels from the 2025/26 season. This puts the stocks-to-usage ratio at 12.1% compared to 13.0% in 2025/26.

USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2026/27 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2025/26 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

USDA 2026/27 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

USDA 2025/26 South American Production (Million Tonnes)

On Wednesday the House of Representatives passed HB 1346 – which would allow year-round sales of E-15. This now must get through the Senate which will be a much steeper hill to climb. If approved this would gradually increase corn demand for fuel but would take time as additional infrastructure needs to be built and the consumer had to demand it before we would see any major demand.

The meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi went on as scheduled, but there was nothing new reported in terms of additional agriculture business. The markets were hoping for a glimpse of additional soybean business and potential new corn business but heard nothing. This resulted in corn, soybeans and wheat prices all seeing a dramatic decline on Thursday and Friday.

Corn planting progress came in at 57% complete as of last Sunday night (5/10/26), which was up 19% from the previous week.  I look for this afternoon’s report to show the US close to 80% complete.

The market’s focus for the next few weeks will be on the two great unknowns. US weather and the Iranian conflict. Both could move the markets multiple directions over the next few weeks or months.

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Corn ended the week on a positive note with some profit taking and more middle east conflict positioning ahead of the weekend. Despite a higher close on Friday, the markets ended the week lower and back below the $5 level. July corn ended 9 lower while December futures were down 6 cents. The funds are long 357,641 corn contracts and long 217,514 soybean contracts.

The Iran negotiations that sent the market lower on Wednesday following news that the US and Iran were “close to a deal” appeared to have fallen apart by Friday. Iran attacked two US warships in the Straight on Friday showing that they are not on the same page as President Trump when it comes to negotiation progress.

While the Iran conflict goes on, the Trump-Xi meeting is scheduled to go forward as planned this week. The bean market has been supported by this news recently and could offer support to corn longer term. I am still skeptical of any huge announcement with the Chinese coming directly from the meeting, but it will be positive the markets long term.

Weather was contusive to planting across most of the US Midwest this past week which should have resulted in progress well north of 50% complete in Monday afternoon’s report. Based on the 7-day forecasts, it looks like we have a window to advance in areas that have struggled with cool and wet conditions in the ECB. Overall, it looks like we will get the crop planted again this year.

On Tuesday the USDA will release their May WASDE. Estimates for this report are listed below. I don’t expect much movement in the markets due to these numbers, but most traders are anxious to get their first look at 2026/27 carryout projections.

USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2026/27 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2025/26 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

USDA 2026/27 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

USDA 2025/26 South American Production (Million Tonnes)

Corn planting progress came in at 38% complete as of last Sunday night (5/3/26), which was up 13% from the previous week.  I look for this afternoon’s report to show the US close to 60% complete.

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Do we finally have a Spring Rally? The corn market continued its move higher this past week with several different stories fueling the fire. From drought in the west to excessive rains in the mid-west and stronger crude oil prices everything was supportive. July corn ended the week 17 cents higher while December corn gained 15 cents. The funds ended the week long 274,572 corn and 185,910 soybean contracts.

Strength early in the week came on the heels of the wheat market that has been rallying due to drought conditions in the plains. The major wheat growing areas have continued to miss rain and crop conditions continue to deteriorate. As of last Monday, 70% of the US wheat growing areas were experiencing moderate or worse drought conditions. The only time it has been this high was in 2022 when we saw wheat rally to more than $12/bushel early in the year due to drought. When wheat prices rise, livestock producers shift to feeding cheaper corn, increasing demand and lifting corn prices. Below is a chart showing the correlation between wheat and corn on the CBOT.

Weather forecasts for the mid-west late in the week added some support to the markets as traders begin to hedge the possibility of corn planting delays. The next 10-day forecast calls for rain across the mid-west from a tenth to five plus inches.  Planting progress was ahead of pace in last Monday’s report, but rains last week slowed progress and could bring us back to average if not below in this afternoon’s report. While we are seeing some support, I personally think we need to get to the second week of May with major planting delays before the market pays serious attention. Larger planters and improved technology have significantly reduced the time it takes to get the crop planted. My concern is not that the acres get planted, but the fact that later planted crops in less-than-ideal conditions typically do not yield well.

The recent corn rally has been very impressive. December corn closed higher in 10 of the last 11 trading sessions while taking out contract highs. While it failed to close above $5 last week, it did trade as high as $5.0175 before settling at $4.9875 to end the week.

Corn planting progress came in at 25% complete as of last Sunday night (4/26/26), which was up from 11% last week and ahead of five-year average of 19%. Corn emergence was reported at 7%, which is up from 5% last year and 4% for the five-year average.

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Didion Weekly Market Recap

The corn markets saw another positive week of trading as demand remains strong and a slightly wetter week may slow planting progress. May and July corn ended the week 6 higher while December corn gained 7 cents on the week. The funds ended the week long 175,213 corn and long 182,573 soybean contracts.

Wet forecasts supported the corn market early in the week and then gave way to support from the wheat market. Wheat has had a couple strong weeks and is approaching recent highs due to the drought in the plains. If they continue to miss the rain we could see additional demand for corn in the west as a replacement for feed wheat later this summer.

July corn made its way back to $4.65 which is the midpoint of the last 2 months’ trading range. While I don’t expect the markets to trade significantly higher in old crop, it is impressive that we are back to these levels considering the carryout we are dealing with. For now it appears traders are going to add to their long positions until we see what happens in the middle east and how planting progress proceeds. The lack of farmer selling over the last couple weeks has helped the markets rally. If they were aggressively selling like we saw a month ago, the commercial elevators and end users would be putting on short hedges and negate the small rallies the fund traders have given us.

Corn planting progress came in at 11% complete as of last Sunday night (4/19/26) which was up from 5% last week and ahead of five-year average of 9%. Corn emergence was reported at 4%, which is up from 2% both last year and for the five-year average.

In my opinion, we do not have a story for delayed planting in the US at this point. There are some trying to pitch that idea, but it has not been a concern yet.  Monday’s crop progress report will be important to see what areas are starting to lag due to the recent rainfalls.  It may still not be a story that moves the market this week, but it will tell us where to watch to see if there will be a story in the later part of May.

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Last week the corn market managed to find some support and posted a weekly gain for the first time this month despite the energy market’s selloff. May corn ended the week 8 cents higher while July and December corn gained 6 and 5 cents respectively. The funds ended the week long 134,618 corn and long 171,081 soybean contracts.

The biggest story this past week was the announcement by Iran’s foreign minister, saying: “In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire.” Some of the shipping companies that traverse the Strait are unsure about the declaration and are officially holding off on taking advantage of the “opening” until they get further clarity. The US continues to maintain a blockade of contraband shipments and sweep for mines.  The energy market’s view comments about the straights opening as positive for crude oil flow and bearish the markets. Following the news, crude oil dropped 10-15% of its value.  Since corn has recently separated itself from the value of crude oil, it was able to maintain its strength despite the selloff.

Tensions in the middle east and the straights passage will continue to remain on traders’ radar, but US weather should become the focus moving forward. Recent rains across the Midwest have helped replenish droughty subsoil conditions left over from the winter but could begin to delay planting if they persist into later April. The Southern Plains are very dry, and rain chances remain very uncertain over the next 10 days which has supported the Wheat markets and spilled over into the corn market.

Planting progress went from 3% to 5% complete as of last Sunday night. This is in line with last year and the five-year average. Rains across the Midwest last week should have limited any significant progress so we should still be close to seasonal progress in this afternoon’s report.

We must keep our focus on the things we know, we have a ton of old crop corn on hand, and we are forecasted to plant enough acres to keep supplies strong. The planted acres story could change slightly depending on weather this spring and summer, but the stocks story is not going to change. Based on this fundamental data, I do not look for the markets to break out of their current trading ranges barring any dramatic weather events. Sales should be made on any small rallies and purchases should be made on any drops. Weekly planting progress and next month WASDE should give us direction for the 2026/27 crop.

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