The corn market had a 20-cent trading range last week before settling 2 cents lower in the September, December and March contracts. Ongoing peace talks and private estimates for the upcoming USDA report were the market movers. The funds ended the week long 140,821 corn contracts and long 131,524 soybean contracts.

Private analyst StoneX was out with their August crop estimate and provided the market with a 184.8 corn yield and a 53-soybean yield. On the surface this appeared to be bearish, but I think the market may have already been trending this way given the recent precipitation in some of the drier areas of the Cornbelt. The ultimate benchmark will come from the USDA this Wednesday, after which everyone can start running their regression models to determine where they feel yield is trending. There are two different models that traders have been looking at to determine the potential size of this crop. The crop vegetation and weather models are currently showing a crop in the 184-186 bushel per acre range. The weekly crop conditions predict a yield in the 180-182 range based on historical data of ratings at the current levels. These differences may seem small, but a 186 yield would put us around a 1.9-billion-bushel carryout while a 180 yield would be closer to 1.3 billion carryout.

USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2026 US Yield (Bushels per Acre)

USDA 2026 US Production (Billion Bushels

USDA 2026/27 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

Corn condition ratings fell by two more points this week, to 61% good/excellent; that is down from 73% last year and the 64% five-year average. North Dakota showed the biggest drop as ratings plunged 13%, followed by an 8% decline in Kansas and a 6% drop in Nebraska. The far western Corn Belt corn crop is deteriorating rapidly. Corn silking was reported to be 90%, doughing at 43%, and denting at 6%.

The weather forecast has warm temperatures in the Plains and cooler weather in the East.  Rain will continue to move through the Eastern Belt over the next two weeks. I think the crop losses in Europe, the Chinese soybean buying and wreckage in the Black Sea are holding the bottom side of this market together as the weather in the US has been improving. Wednesdays USDA report will be the next market mover as we get a better handle on what the USDA is thinking for yield.

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Despite the world’s shipping issues tied to the black Sea, weather took control of the markets late last week. With rain falling across the major corn growing areas and forecasts for more over the weekend, September, December and March, futures all traded 23 cents lower. The funds ended the week long 81,776 corn contracts and long 132,479 soybean contracts.

A drop in crop ratings held corn higher early in the week before a favorable weather forecast took over. Corn condition ratings fell four points last week to 63% good/excellent, which is below both last year (73%) and the five-year average (64%). This was the largest weekly drop in July since 2012 and the largest for this week since 2007. The rating of 63% good to excellent suggests a crop that is at or below trendline.  Of the top 18 production states, only three posted an improvement in crop conditions (Missouri, Pennsylvania and North Carolina), with Iowa and Tennessee remaining unchanged.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard targeted a US air base in Jordan in a missile attack and claimed to have hit three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, which closed shipping again. The US intercepted the attack, and along with Saudi Arabia, struck back at Iran. There remains doubt that Iran wants a diplomatic end to the war. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is threatening world energy and fertilizer supplies, and the length of the conflict is causing growing anxiety that it will carry into the Northern Hemispheres winter season when heating oil demand grows.

Beneficial rains fell across most of the corn producing states late last week and into the weekend.  with nearly 30% of the major corn production areas experiencing drought as of this past week these rains were desperately needed. Forecasts have another hot air mass building in the coming week in the Plains and then breaking down again late in the week.  It appears there will be more chances of rain as the ridge backs off.  So far, the GFS has been the better predicter of weather this summer when compared to the EU.

We are just over a week away from the USDA’s August Crop Production report which could give us some changes. Estimates for this report will be out this week and I expect most will be anticipating a lower yield due to the lack of rain in July. We will have a decent carryout from the 2025 crop which may keep prices depressed the balance of the year, but a smaller 2026 crop should tighten the balance sheet for 2027 if demand remains strong. My highest I see September (CU6) trading is $4.75. The top I see for December (CZ6) and March (CH7) are $5.05 and $5.15 respectively.

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War, Weather and Wheat were the market movers this past week. September futures ended the week 19 higher while December and March both closed 20 cents higher. The funds are now long 107,713 corn contracts and long 158,505 soybean contracts.

The US and Iran conflict has resurfaced and dominated the energy markets last week pushing crude oil up $12/barrel last week. The Russia and Ukraine conflict continued to impact the wheat market which has seen the market rally over $1.20/bushel since the first of July. Both issues have spilled over into the grain markets, moving corn, soybeans and wheat higher last week.

While the Middle East remains a mess and conflict creates demand for commodities, weather issues remain ever present and may be a bigger factor. US weather forecasts are holding the ridge over the Upper Plains and keeping temperatures elevated while keeping rain away.  So far this year the forecasts have been more extreme in temperature and moisture deficits than what we have actually experienced. While they may have missed previous forecasts, I would argue weather is more critical now than it was when those forecasts were off.

The 7–10-day forecast calls for extended heat and drought across ND, MN, IA, IL and the great lakes region. 100-degree temperatures across the Northwest Plains will continue to put pressure on the markets. The 10–15-day forecasts vary between the European and US models making it difficult to determine how big this could be in the market.

Last week’s crop progress report was down 1% with 67% of the crop reported in the Good/Excellent category. This is above the five-year average by 2% but slightly behind last year’s 74%. 59% of the crop was reported as silking compared to 53% last year and 54% on average.

With last week’s rally, we managed to close above my targets on the CBOT for September, December and March. With the current risk premium that is being traded in the market, my next target for September (CU6) is $4.75. My next targets for December (CZ6) and March (CH7) are $5.05 and $5.15 respectively.

If the extended weather forecasts hold true and conflict continues in Europe or the middle east, we could hit these levels shortly. Keep an eye on weather forecast as they change frequently this time of year and can have dramatic impacts on the markets as traders move positions.

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The corn market found support in the weather forecasts and stronger wheat markets to close higher last week. September futures ended the week 5 higher while December and March closed 7 cents higher. The funds ended the week long 16,361 corn contracts and long 85,191 soybean contracts.

The Russia-Ukraine war became very active last week resulting in traders adding premium to the wheat complex to mitigate any risk of an escalation and world wheat exports being impacted. Russia and Ukraine account for approximately 30% of the world’s wheat exports. Corn followed wheat higher because they are substitutes for each other in the feed markets. In addition to feed replacements, Ukraine is a top 5 exporter of corn for the world.

Russia said they are preparing to reroute grain exports from Sea of Azov port locations to deep sea ports in the Black Sea or through Baltic Sea ports following the recent attacks from Ukraine and that they do not expect any overall impact on Russia’s annual grain exports. This should keep values in check long term, but the short-term delay in shipments has and will most likely continue to support the markets. Rerouting through other ports could delay shipments by 30-90 days.

US heat started slipping back into the extended weather models but to a lesser degree. The National Weather Service released its 30-day outlook, which showed the Midwest under a normal to above-normal rain for August. The temperature outlook continues to moderate in the 14-day forecast, with elevated temperatures in the southern and eastern corn belt in the 30-day range.

Last week’s crop progress report was up 1% with 68% of the crop reported in the Good/Excellent category. This is above the five-year average by 2% but slightly behind last year’s 74%.

Last week’s run up in the markets took the September (CU6) contract above my target of $4.50, but it failed to close above that level. December (CZ6) and March (CH7) contracts fell just short of my targets of $4.75 and $4.90 respectively. If the extended weather forecasts hold true or if the wheat market continues its run, we should hit these levels this week. Keep an eye on weather forecast as they change frequently this time of year and can have dramatic impacts on the markets as traders move positions.

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Corn found support last week with weather dominating trade early in the week and the July WASDE adding strength late in the week. September futures ended the week 16 higher while December and March futures closed 18 and 19 higher respectively. The funds ended the week long 1,001 corn contracts and long 64,579 soybean contracts.

The USDA released their July WASDE report on Friday in which it tightened corn supply. The 2025/26 corn balance sheet called for feed and residual use to increase by 150 million bushels, which was slightly offset by the decrease in corn used for ethanol which was down 25 million. Beginning stocks for 2026/27 were lowered to 2.02 billion bushels, reflecting the changes in the 2025/26 carry over while production increased marginally to 16 billion bushels. As expected, yield was unchanged at 183.0 bushels per acre. Total use increased 50 million bushels due to increased exports with higher global demand. New crop ending stocks decreased 170 million bushels to 1.79 billion. The stock-to-use ratio dropped to 11.01%.

USDA 2025/26 Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2026 US Yield (Bushels per Acre)

USDA 2026 US Production (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2026/267Carryout (Billion Bushels)

Last week’s crop progress report was unchanged with 67% of the crop reported in the Good/Excellent category. This is above the five-year average by 2% but slightly behind last year’s 74%.

It’s going to be hot in the Plains next week, which can edge yields back.  The massive dome that was forecasted early last week did not develop, maybe it will later as ridges tend to return a couple times throughout the summer. The EU has a major weather issue that has real teeth.  They have lost a lot of their crops with hot and dry weather that has lingered; it looks as extreme for them as our 2012 crop year. Keep an eye on weather forecast as they change frequently this time of year and can have dramatic impacts on the markets as traders move positions.

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