The corn market found support in the weather forecasts and stronger wheat markets to close higher last week. September futures ended the week 5 higher while December and March closed 7 cents higher. The funds ended the week long 16,361 corn contracts and long 85,191 soybean contracts.

The Russia-Ukraine war became very active last week resulting in traders adding premium to the wheat complex to mitigate any risk of an escalation and world wheat exports being impacted. Russia and Ukraine account for approximately 30% of the world’s wheat exports. Corn followed wheat higher because they are substitutes for each other in the feed markets. In addition to feed replacements, Ukraine is a top 5 exporter of corn for the world.

Russia said they are preparing to reroute grain exports from Sea of Azov port locations to deep sea ports in the Black Sea or through Baltic Sea ports following the recent attacks from Ukraine and that they do not expect any overall impact on Russia’s annual grain exports. This should keep values in check long term, but the short-term delay in shipments has and will most likely continue to support the markets. Rerouting through other ports could delay shipments by 30-90 days.

US heat started slipping back into the extended weather models but to a lesser degree. The National Weather Service released its 30-day outlook, which showed the Midwest under a normal to above-normal rain for August. The temperature outlook continues to moderate in the 14-day forecast, with elevated temperatures in the southern and eastern corn belt in the 30-day range.

Last week’s crop progress report was up 1% with 68% of the crop reported in the Good/Excellent category. This is above the five-year average by 2% but slightly behind last year’s 74%.

Last week’s run up in the markets took the September (CU6) contract above my target of $4.50, but it failed to close above that level. December (CZ6) and March (CH7) contracts fell just short of my targets of $4.75 and $4.90 respectively. If the extended weather forecasts hold true or if the wheat market continues its run, we should hit these levels this week. Keep an eye on weather forecast as they change frequently this time of year and can have dramatic impacts on the markets as traders move positions.

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Corn found support last week with weather dominating trade early in the week and the July WASDE adding strength late in the week. September futures ended the week 16 higher while December and March futures closed 18 and 19 higher respectively. The funds ended the week long 1,001 corn contracts and long 64,579 soybean contracts.

The USDA released their July WASDE report on Friday in which it tightened corn supply. The 2025/26 corn balance sheet called for feed and residual use to increase by 150 million bushels, which was slightly offset by the decrease in corn used for ethanol which was down 25 million. Beginning stocks for 2026/27 were lowered to 2.02 billion bushels, reflecting the changes in the 2025/26 carry over while production increased marginally to 16 billion bushels. As expected, yield was unchanged at 183.0 bushels per acre. Total use increased 50 million bushels due to increased exports with higher global demand. New crop ending stocks decreased 170 million bushels to 1.79 billion. The stock-to-use ratio dropped to 11.01%.

USDA 2025/26 Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2026 US Yield (Bushels per Acre)

USDA 2026 US Production (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2026/267Carryout (Billion Bushels)

Last week’s crop progress report was unchanged with 67% of the crop reported in the Good/Excellent category. This is above the five-year average by 2% but slightly behind last year’s 74%.

It’s going to be hot in the Plains next week, which can edge yields back.  The massive dome that was forecasted early last week did not develop, maybe it will later as ridges tend to return a couple times throughout the summer. The EU has a major weather issue that has real teeth.  They have lost a lot of their crops with hot and dry weather that has lingered; it looks as extreme for them as our 2012 crop year. Keep an eye on weather forecast as they change frequently this time of year and can have dramatic impacts on the markets as traders move positions.

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The end of a quarter, a USDA report and extended weekend positioning all resulted in a market that was basically unchanged. Despite a 20-cent trading range in a holiday shortened week, September futures ended the week a penny higher while December and March futures were unchanged. The funds are short 3,819 corn contracts and long 68,986 soybean contracts.

The USDA released its June Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report this past Tuesday. Corn planted acres came in slightly above expectations. The total is still 4% below last year but ranks as the 4th highest in modern history.

Corn stocks came in below estimates but remain the largest since 2018/19. Several states set records for total, on-farm, and off-farm stocks. 56% of stocks are on farm, which is in line with last year. U.S. on-farm stocks rose 12% year over year, while off-farm stocks rose 16%.

USDA June 1 Stocks (Billion Bushels)

USDA June Acreage (Million Acres)

Last week’s crop progress report was down 1% from the previous week by 3% of the five year average in the Good/Excellent category.

Last week’s report shows that the balance sheet appears to be tightening for corn due to stronger than anticipated demand. As we transition to Q3 traders will focus on July weather to see how this crop is shaping up. As I stated last week, this is the most critical month in determining the size of the crop. We are still working with 1.9 – 2.0 billion bushels on the balance sheet, but things can change quickly. My targets have not changed since last week, I think we are taking September futures back to $4.50 and December futures back to the $4.70 level.

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The markets sold off early last week before mounting a comeback on Thursday with support from multiple angles. Stronger crude oil, end of a quarter, first notice day for July futures and a crop report this coming Tuesday all added to the rally. Ultimately corn ended the week, 3 cents lower in the September contract while December ended the week 2 lower. The funds are short 42,819 corn contracts and long 55,988 soybean contracts.

The bounce on Thursday may have signaled a bottom in the markets unless we continue to see favorable weather the rest of the summer. The 6-10 day and the 11–15-day forecasts show a lot of heat in across the corn belt. If these hold, we could see the funds rolling back into the corn market. July is the most critical time of year for the corn crop when it comes to weather. Look for traders to focus harder on weather forecasts the next two weeks as they could become interesting.

Tuesday the USDA will release their quarterly stocks and acreage report. Estimates for the report are listed below. Both stocks and acreage will be important and could move be market movers. I think the stocks should be higher than current estimates. The USDA has been using a feed demand number that is too high in my opinion. Hogs, Cattle and Poultry numbers are very similar to last year, up between .3 and 2.7% over last year. Meanwhile the USDA is using a feed number that is 17% higher than last year. On the acreage side, I am projecting the planted acres to be just over 96 million. While I am anticipating a larger planted acreage than most, I do think the final harvested number comes down due to abandonment. (flooded out acres, drought acres).

USDA June 1 Stocks (Billion Bushels)

USDA June Acreage (Million Acres)

Last Monday’s crop progress report was unchanged from the previous week with 68% of the crop in the Good/Excellent category.

I think we have a chance to take September futures back to $4.50 and December futures back to the $4.70 level. It could be weather, surprise demand, speculative buying by the funds or an acreage adjustment in one of the coming USDA reports. Have a Happy 4^th of July!

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For the second week in a row, new contract lows were established in the July, September and December contract months last Monday before the market bounced to work higher. July corn ended the week 5 cents higher while September and December corn ended 4 cents higher. The funds short position was short lived as they are now long 24,194 corn and long 143,359 soybean contracts.

US and Iranian officials have started direct talks in Switzerland after signing an initial agreement to end the war last week. The deal includes a commitment to reach a final agreement within 60 days, as well as an end to fighting on “all fronts” – including in Lebanon – and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. But more clashes between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon prompted Iran to announce it had shut the shipping route on Saturday – though tracking data shows vessels have continued to pass through it.

The funds appear to be coming back to the corn market as active buyers. Technically the market’s recent selloff has stalled and is giving us a breather to analyze where things may go heading forward. Statistically the corn market is trading in the lower 10% of the five-year average. This means that over the last five years, the market has only traded lower than current levels 10% of the time.

Weather forecasts continue to offer a positive outlook in the 15–30-day timeframe with moderate temperatures and normal rainfall thru mid-July. Concern over a drought this summer is all but eliminated and switched to excessive moisture in some areas of the country.

Last Monday’s crop progress report improved 1% in the Good/Excellent category. This is 4% behind last year but 1% ahead of the five-year average. With plentiful rainfall and favorable weather across the mid-west this past week I would expect this afternoon’s conditions to remain unchanged to slightly improved.

The acreage report isn’t until the end of the month so there is still an opportunity for the Stocks and Acreage to become a bullish story. Early estimates that I have seen indicate that some traders looking for planted acres to drop 1-3 million in this report.

While I don’t expect any short-term demand spikes, I feel like we have put a floor in these markets and they are due for correction. I still think we have a chance to take July futures back to $4.40 and December futures back to the $4.70 level. It could be weather, surprise demand, speculative buying by the funds or an acreage adjustment in one of the coming USDA reports.

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