Recent rainfall and favorable weather forecasts were the fuse that lit the fire as traders exited their longs in dramatic fashion last week. The lack of Chinese trade news, additional war news and a favorable crop conditions report sent the funds to the door. July futures ended the week 30 lower while September and December corn both closed 29 cents lower. After a week of selling the funds are now only long 12,136 corn contracts and long 94,780 soybean contracts.

The Midwest saw decent rains last week, and the 15-day forecast continues to look better as rains have shifted into the southeastern US, central corn belt, and eastern corn belt. Recent drought monitor maps show that the rains that have arrived have already improved some of the Western Corn Belt and the forecasted rains could improve conditions even more.

The June Crop Production report will be out on Thursday. I don’t expect this report to be a market mover. Estimates are listed below.

USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2026/27 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2026/27 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

USDA 2025/26 South American Production (Million Tonnes)

The first crop progress report of the year showed 67% of the corn crop in the Good/Excellent range. This is slightly behind the five-year average and last year’s report for the same date. Favorable weather last week should result in a stable to slightly improved report this afternoon.

The market appears to have removed all the weather premiums that we built in April and early May. It’s only June 8^th and there is plenty of summer left to build another weather rally, so the game is not over yet. It’s my belief that the market rallied too fast at the beginning of March when the conflict started and that it recently sold off too fast based on early June weather. I expect the markets to stabilize as we move thru the balance of June and potentially take July futures back to the $4.40 level and December futures back to the $4.70 level by the end of June if we see weather issues arise, China show up to buy new crop corn or significant escalation in the Iranian conflict.

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Expectations for a deal with Iran and improved Midwest weather resulted in a selloff in the corn market last week. July futures ended the week 16 lower while December corn closed 11 cents lower. The funds ended the week long 178,337 corn contracts and long 188,229 soybean contracts.

President Trump announced early last week that a deal with Iran is “largely negotiated” and he will either sign “a great and meaningful” pact with Iran “or there will be no deal”. Iran acknowledged an agreement was being discussed, but claimed the agreement wasn’t imminent and was not going to concede on the nuclear issue.

Social media posts by President Trump showed a blend of demands in addition to an agreement made with Iran to extend the ceasefire. The market took the statements as further evidence that a deal will be struck, and it was on its way to being finalized. As part of the agreement, the US lifts the naval blockade, and Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz to normal traffic without fees. Questions around how this will be enforced and whether Iran will act in good faith is what kept the energy markets from falling too hard.

This war situation has certainly become tiresome when seeing the on again/off again nature and how it impacts our markets. While corn has an excellent story from a demand perspective and potential acreage losses, we still have plenty of old-crop corn to chew through. I’m not bearish, but July futures closing below the $4.50 level on Friday was concerning as it is now trading below the levels where March and May futures expired.($4.52 ½ and $4.51 ½ respectively) As for new crop corn, I feel like we will have support at least until we see the acreage report at the end of June. For December (CZ) corn we are currently trading at the $4.75 support level. If we close below this level, we are probably headed to $4.68 which is where we closed before the war broke out.

Corn planting progress came in at 86% complete as of last Sunday night (5/24/26), which was up 10% from the previous week and 3% ahead of the five-year average. Corn emergence is 60%, which is up 21% from last week and 2% ahead of the five-year average.

The upcoming stretch of warmer and drier weather across the Midwest is expected to significantly improve crop development, accelerate emergence, and allow the last bit of planting to warp up. This warm stretch is welcome following the cool and wet spring most dealt with. We will get our first crop condition report this afternoon which should improve greatly in the next week.

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Corn was higher last week mainly due to a big rally on Monday based on US and Chinese news. Talk that the US and Iran were once again close to a deal mid-week brought the markets back into check to finish out the week. July futures ended the week 7 higher while December corn closed 6 cents higher. The funds ended the week long 261,342 corn contracts and long 189,037 soybean contracts.

Corn rebounded from the sharp losses the previous week as we received more details of what President Trump and Xi agreed on during their meeting began to surface. According to China’s commerce ministry, the two countries will pursue reciprocal tariff reductions and other measures aimed at boosting trade flows, including for agriculture. Beijing said negotiations are continuing over which products would receive tariff relief and how the reductions would be implemented.

The White House said China has also agreed to purchase at least $17 billion in U.S. agricultural products annually through 2028 in addition to soybean purchases commitments that it made in October 2025. The $17 billion annual commitment would provide important support for major export sectors including corn, wheat, sorghum, ork, beef, poultry, dairy, cotton and ethanol related products (DDGS).

On Wednesday Chinese president Xi Jinping’s comments regarding the Iranian conflict pushed the markets lower. Xi stated that “A broad ceasefire is imperative; restarting the war is even more unacceptable, and engaging in negotiations is particularly important.” Traders took this as a sign of diminished support for Iran from its ally, China, to hasten the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which has restricted the flow of needed goods to China’s economy.

Short term the markets appear to be in a comfortable trading range given the stocks we are dealing with this year. But given the potential increase in biofuel demand around the world in the coming years, we could see additional support for the 2026 crop and beyond. While the US is still in the process of approving year-round E15 blending, the rest of the world is also increasing demand for ethanol. Vietnam launches its E10 mandate on June 1st. It projects that it will need 18 to 19 million gallons of ethanol to supplement its domestic output to make the E10 project a reality. That is about ¼ of what the US sends to its top destination (Canada) monthly. If Vietnam chooses the US as its main supplier, it could boost US exports by 10% and subsequently increase ethanol demand 1 to 1.5% annually. India is also launching an ethanol mandate that will double or triple its demand. India plans on using corn in the expansion of ethanol production as its feedstock. India is currently not a net importer/exporter of corn so they will either seek imported corn or choose ethanol imports to supplement its expanded ethanol program.

Corn planting progress came in at 76% complete as of last Sunday night (5/17/26), which was up 19% from the previous week and 6% ahead of the five-year average. Corn emergence is 39%, which is up 16% from last week and 2% ahead of the five-year average.

The market’s focus for the next few weeks will continue to be on the unknowns, US weather and the Iranian conflict. Both could move the markets multiple directions over the next few weeks or months. There’s no way of knowing where this corn market might go, but I look for it to stay supported until we see the June planted acreage.

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There were a lot of potential news stories in the markets this past week but ultimately it was the lack of news that moved the market. A neutral to bullish USDA report, approval of E-15 and positive meetings between President trump and Xi were all positive. Ultimately the lack of any new business with China was what moved the markets lower to end the week. July corn ended the week 16 cents lower while December corn lost 13 cents. The funds ended the week-long 235,120 corn and long 161,023soybean contracts.

On Tuesday the USDA released their May WASDE. This report was considered bullish for wheat and soybeans while neutral for corn. For corn, USDA’s first 2026/27 balance sheet held few surprises. Production is forecast at 15.995 billion bushels, slightly above pre-report estimates at 15.948 billion bushels. National average yields are initially pegged at a weather-adjusted trend of 183.0 and are subject to change as the growing season advances. On the demand side of the balance sheet, exports are lowered by 150 million bushels from the 2025/26 crop year likely due to smaller expected production. While exports are projected to be lower than last season, if realized, this forecast would be the second largest on record. USDA also pegs feed and residual use down from prior year due to smaller supplies. Initial new-crop ending stocks are forecast at 1.957 billion bushels, down 170 million bushels from the 2025/26 season. This puts the stocks-to-usage ratio at 12.1% compared to 13.0% in 2025/26.

USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2026/27 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2025/26 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

USDA 2026/27 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

USDA 2025/26 South American Production (Million Tonnes)

On Wednesday the House of Representatives passed HB 1346 – which would allow year-round sales of E-15. This now must get through the Senate which will be a much steeper hill to climb. If approved this would gradually increase corn demand for fuel but would take time as additional infrastructure needs to be built and the consumer had to demand it before we would see any major demand.

The meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi went on as scheduled, but there was nothing new reported in terms of additional agriculture business. The markets were hoping for a glimpse of additional soybean business and potential new corn business but heard nothing. This resulted in corn, soybeans and wheat prices all seeing a dramatic decline on Thursday and Friday.

Corn planting progress came in at 57% complete as of last Sunday night (5/10/26), which was up 19% from the previous week.  I look for this afternoon’s report to show the US close to 80% complete.

The market’s focus for the next few weeks will be on the two great unknowns. US weather and the Iranian conflict. Both could move the markets multiple directions over the next few weeks or months.

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Corn ended the week on a positive note with some profit taking and more middle east conflict positioning ahead of the weekend. Despite a higher close on Friday, the markets ended the week lower and back below the $5 level. July corn ended 9 lower while December futures were down 6 cents. The funds are long 357,641 corn contracts and long 217,514 soybean contracts.

The Iran negotiations that sent the market lower on Wednesday following news that the US and Iran were “close to a deal” appeared to have fallen apart by Friday. Iran attacked two US warships in the Straight on Friday showing that they are not on the same page as President Trump when it comes to negotiation progress.

While the Iran conflict goes on, the Trump-Xi meeting is scheduled to go forward as planned this week. The bean market has been supported by this news recently and could offer support to corn longer term. I am still skeptical of any huge announcement with the Chinese coming directly from the meeting, but it will be positive the markets long term.

Weather was contusive to planting across most of the US Midwest this past week which should have resulted in progress well north of 50% complete in Monday afternoon’s report. Based on the 7-day forecasts, it looks like we have a window to advance in areas that have struggled with cool and wet conditions in the ECB. Overall, it looks like we will get the crop planted again this year.

On Tuesday the USDA will release their May WASDE. Estimates for this report are listed below. I don’t expect much movement in the markets due to these numbers, but most traders are anxious to get their first look at 2026/27 carryout projections.

USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2026/27 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2025/26 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

USDA 2026/27 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

USDA 2025/26 South American Production (Million Tonnes)

Corn planting progress came in at 38% complete as of last Sunday night (5/3/26), which was up 13% from the previous week.  I look for this afternoon’s report to show the US close to 60% complete.

Upcoming reports