The corn markets continue their attempt to fend off bearish news as harvest plugs along. Harvest pressure, bearish soybean and wheat markets along with the upcoming election kept corn on the defensive this past week. December futures ended the week 8 cents lower while March and May futures closed 9 and 10 cents lower respectively. The funds have exited more than 200,000 of their long position in corn since the bearish October WASDE. The funds ended the week long 99,113 corn contracts and long 190,781 soybean contracts.

Export sales reported by the USDA showed another declining week, down .2 mmt (million metric ton) from last week and down .5 mmt from last year. Commitments are 23.5 mmt vs 35.4 mmt the same week a year ago. The USDA is forecasting only a 3.3 mmt decline year over year.  Mexico’s purchases, or lack thereof, are a large share of the pullback. The US’s competitive advantage to Mexico remains in place but is slipping in other destinations.

Brazil’s producers are aggressively marketing their corn crop. Brazil’s first corn crop is 16% priced, the highest percent in five years. The second corn crop has been marketed at an average pace, and 13% of it is priced as of last week.

Rain is in the forecast for this week, with widespread 1–3 inches across the Midwest that should slow remaining harvest. For many this is welcome even if it pushes corn harvest further behind average as it will ease the pressure and allow end users and elevators to make some space. States with the most left include OH, MI, IA, NE, KS, and MN.

Harvest has been progressing by leaps and bounds over the past couple weeks. Last week’s report showed the crop was 60% complete compared to 44% the previous week. While still lagging the five-year average, things are moving along nicely thanks to an unseasonably warm fall.

We are just over a week away from the November WASDE which should have traders’ attention. Historically this report would not carry a lot of weight but given the big changes we saw in the October WASDE, many will be paying close attention to see if the USDA pulls back from their last report, piles on more bearish news or kicks the can. All three are equally in play, so play your cards close to your vest!

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We had a weaker trade this past week as the markets focused on harvest progress. December corn ended the week 6 cents lower while March and May closed 8 cents lower. The funds ended the week long 227,925 corn contracts and long 227807 soybean contracts.

While the USDA estimates for the US crop continue to keep pressure on the markets as harvest progresses along, private estimates for Brazil’s crop added pressure. Conab (Brazil’s version of the USDA) is estimating a total corn crop for the upcoming season at 148 mmt (million metric ton) which is 9 mmt larger than the USDA’s current forecast. Conab puts the growth on a 4.9% expansion in acreage despite the discussions about rising costs associated with fuel and fertilizer. 9 mmt or 350 million bushels in extra supplies, if recognized by the USDA could have an impact on futures. This would be 350 million bushel more export-competing supplies and could translate to a smaller US export program.

Harvest progress had a 10% increase week over week and is currently 33% complete. This compares to 39% on average. Weather was favorable across most of the Midwest last week which should result in better progress in this afternoon’s report.

December futures closed below the 200-day moving average of $4.79 on Friday setting the tone for bearish trade in the coming week. The next support level in December corn is at $4.70 followed by $4.57. I could see us testing the first support level early this week, but don’t expect to reach the second without some outside news.

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The corn markets treaded water early in the week before sinking following Fridays USDA report that increased production and carryout of the 2026/27 crop. December corn ended the week 18 cents lower while March and May futures each lost 17 cents. The funds have reduced their long position in corn by over 70,000 contracts since the first of October and ended the week long 236,839 corn contracts and long 220,066 soybean contracts.

Fridays USDA report projected the 2026/27 yield at 181.2 bushels per acre which was at the top end of pre report estimates and 2.7 bushels per acre higher than the September report. The 173 million increase to beginning stocks based on the September 30^th Grain Stocks Report along with this week’s increase in yield results in a carryout of 1.849 billion bushels. The 1.849-billion-bushel carryout represents a 11.34% stock to use ratio which historically results in CBOT values in the $4.25 – $4.50 range.

Globally, 2026/27 ending stocks were raised by 8.3 MMT to 280.44 MMT, below the average pre-report estimate but within the range (273.0 to 310.5 range). This reflects an increase in beginning stocks for the United States and Argentina and increased production in the United States.

USDA 2026 US Yield (Bushels per acre)

USDA 2026 US Production (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2026/27 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2026/27 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

Harvest progress was limited in last week’s report with 23% of the crop reported complete compared to 27% on average. Weather was favorable across most of the Midwest last week which should result in better progress in this afternoon’s report.

Where do prices go from here? Following the bearish news from the last couple reports I look for the markets to stabilize. Lower prices should support demand both domestically and on the export front. We are still early in the harvest stages of the 2026 crop, but it wont be long before producers will be making 2027 planting decisions. The job of the market is to ration supply and demand. When comparing fall of 2027 values corn holds a small advantage but has lost a lot of ground recently. Any additional selling could swing that pendulum. With current demand, we need corn acreage and yield to hold constant which should add support to the corn market long term.

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The markets reversed direction following the bearish WASDE report last week. December, March and May futures all ended the week 30 cents lower on the week. The funds ended reduced their long position by 128,000 contracts and are now long 299,220 corn contracts while they remain long 232,558 soybean contracts.

The markets saw massive selling following the stocks report on Wednesday as the USDA confirmed it had been overestimating the 2025/26 feed demand. The average estimate for the September 1 stocks number was 1.918 million bushels. What the USDA delivered was 2.095-million-bushel carryout which came about through a combination of a slightly lower production number and ultimately a smaller feed demand number.

The 2.095 carryout offer a supply buffer to the 2026/27 supply and demand table. This adjustment is equivalent to adding almost 2 bushels per acre to the 2026 crop. Instead of a 178.5 yield that the USDA gave us back in August, technically just became greater than 180.

On Friday October 9^th the USDA will release its October crop production report. While not a lot of changes are expected, one that could surface is an adjustment to expected yield. Early reports from the southern states have reported yields below last year and in some cases by as much as 20 or more bushels. Will we see an adjustment lower or will the USDA surprise the majority with a higher yield. The only estimate available at the time of this writing was from well-known Stone X, whose estimates for this year’s crop come at 182.1 bushel per acre.

Harvest progress slowed last week and came in at 18% complete which is right in line with the five-year average. With excessive rains across the Midwest this past week, this afternoon’s report should show progress falling behind the average.

Historically the markets trend lower heading into October before slowly grinding higher into the end of the year. We filled the $5.09 CZ26 gap this past week and closed below multiple support levels to end the week. Look for the markets to stabilize heading into Friday’s report. Any significant adjustments on Friday could carry through until the November 10^th crop production report.

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Corn traded in a 20-cent range last week but ultimately settled unchanged to a penny higher in most contract months. Weather across the Midwest, China and US meetings along with rumors of peace in Iran kept traders’ attention during the week. The funds ended the week long 428,097 corn and long 277,159 soybean contracts.

President Trump and Chinese President Xi’s meeting had traders’ attention late last week. Following the conclusion of the meeting, there was no immediate mention of the 17-billion-dollar Ag purchase and no discussion of the 25 million metric ton soybean deal which sent the markets lower Thursday evening into Friday mornings trade. Fridays mid – morning comments from President Trump that the meeting was “very productive” and the US farmer would be “very happy” with the agreement caused the markets to rebound and trade back to unchanged to slightly higher to end the day. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated Friday morning that the US and China have reached agreements on a subset of goods they can trade and that details of the agreement were going to be released on Monday September 28^th.

Late last week Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume talks on its nuclear program within seven days if the United States lifts its naval blockade of Iranian ports, waives sanctions on Iranian oil sales and observes a ceasefire that would include Lebanon. These comments pushed crude oil $4-5/barrel lower to end the week. On Saturday President Trump said that he had rejected the Iranian proposal to reopen the Straight stating that they wanted to make a deal where they open the straight immediately because they’re losing so badly.

On Wednesday September 30^th the USDA will release its quarterly stocks report.  Estimates for the report are listed below.

USDA September 1^st Stocks (Billion Bushels)

Harvest progress remained slightly ahead of the five-year average at 13% complete last week. Yields continue to be reported in a wide range, but most of them are 10-20 bushels off last year’s results.

Historically the markets trend lower heading into October before slowly grinding higher into the end of the year. With the geopolitical influences and events, we have taking place today, I expect a lot more volatility and would look to capture both high and low that the market offers. Demand has been strong, but high prices have made the US less competitive over the last 30 days, and it is showing in export sales which is the first place it shows up.

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