Corn futures doubled down with another 20 cent gain this past week as bullish news from the crop tour fueled the rally. September corn closed 25 cents higher on the week while December and March ended the week 26 and 25 cents higher respectively. The funds are now long 249,692 corn contracts and long 176,782 soybean contracts.

The Pro Farmer crop tour wrapped up on Thursday after making stops in SD, NE, OH, IN, IL, IA and MN last week. Of the 7 states they visited, they found smaller yields than last year in all of them and smaller yields that the USDA’s August report in 6 of the 7 states. (MN was higher) Pro Farmers final yield came in at 173.2 bushels per acre compared to the USDA’s August estimate of 180.7 bushels per acre. Pro Farmers production was estimated at 15.344 billion bushels compared to the USDA’s 16.013. Using the USDA’s demand base estimates would create a carryout of 986 million bushels. A number this low would result in higher markets and result in rationing.

While Pro Farmer painted a bullish outlook for the markets, the USDA historically comes in higher on yield and production. The chart below shows the coloration between the Pro Farmer and USDA August, September and Final numbers. In the last 20 years the USDA’s final yield was higher than the Pro Farmer estimate.

Harvest progress in the southern states has been under way for a few weeks, but we are a couple weeks away from the USDA reporting the progress. 29% of the crops were reported as dented compared to 25% on average.

We made new highs in every new crop contract month except for September this past week. Given the fact that Pro Farmers’ final yield was not released until the markets closed on Friday, I would expect the market to have strength early in the week before some profits are taken. 20-25 cents above Fridays close is my new ceiling for all new crop months.

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Corn found support this past week on the heels of a bullish yield number from the USDA and lack of a truce between Russia and Ukraine. September corn gained 20 cents while December and March futures closed 21 cents higher. The funds are now long 201,875 corn contracts and long 117,109 soybean contracts.

The USDA raised planted corn acreage by 1.4 million acres to 96.7 million. Offsetting the increase in acres was a lower than expended yield projection of 180.7 bushels per acre, down 2.3 bushels from last month’s forecast. The increased acres and lower yield result in production of 13 million more bushels or 16.013 billion bushels.

The USDA 2025-26 balance sheet was reduced by 75 million bushels due to an increase in exports which jumped to 3.4 billion.

With the lower beginning stocks and slight increase in production, total supplies are forecast to be 62 million bushels lower than last month. New crop ending stocks are forecast at 1.653 billion bushels, down 137 million from last month, and 292 million bushels (-15%) lower than last year. The stocks-to-usage ratio is projected to be 10.12% compared to 11.01% last month.

USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2026 US Yield (Bushels per Acre)

USDA 2026 US Production (Billion Bushels

USDA 2026/27 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

The Black Sea conflict continues to hamper wheat exports, adding support to the wheat market which has been pulling corn and soybeans along for the ride. Ukraine reached out to Russia to work on a ceasefire early last week, but Russia rejected that proposal sending the markets higher to end the week.

The Pro Farmer Tour kicks off this week and will have the market’s attention. Traders pay close attention to the tour for its ability to cover a large amount of territory with plenty of field feedback on social media accounts.

US corn condition ratings remained unchanged at 61% good to excellent on Monday. It was the first week corn ratings stabilized after starting the decline from 68% good to excellent on July 12.  North Dakota took a hit in corn ratings this week, declining 10 points to 27% good to excellent. North Dakota currently stands at 30% lower than the 5-year average. Nebraska saw the biggest increase in ratings, improving 3% week on week to 57% good to excellent. 61% of the US corn crop is in the dough stage—6 points ahead of the 5-year average. 16% of the US crop is dented vs. the 5-year average of 12%.

It’s only mid-August so there is still plenty of room for small changes to the crop size based on weather. Weekly crop conditions will be watched closely along with the Pro Farmer crop tour as traders try to get a handle on the size of this year’s crop. Recent storms across the corn belt have done a lot of damage in certain areas that will reduce the size of the crop in those areas. We may see the results of some of that damage in the Pro Farmer reports.

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The corn market had a 20-cent trading range last week before settling 2 cents lower in the September, December and March contracts. Ongoing peace talks and private estimates for the upcoming USDA report were the market movers. The funds ended the week long 140,821 corn contracts and long 131,524 soybean contracts.

Private analyst StoneX was out with their August crop estimate and provided the market with a 184.8 corn yield and a 53-soybean yield. On the surface this appeared to be bearish, but I think the market may have already been trending this way given the recent precipitation in some of the drier areas of the Cornbelt. The ultimate benchmark will come from the USDA this Wednesday, after which everyone can start running their regression models to determine where they feel yield is trending. There are two different models that traders have been looking at to determine the potential size of this crop. The crop vegetation and weather models are currently showing a crop in the 184-186 bushel per acre range. The weekly crop conditions predict a yield in the 180-182 range based on historical data of ratings at the current levels. These differences may seem small, but a 186 yield would put us around a 1.9-billion-bushel carryout while a 180 yield would be closer to 1.3 billion carryout.

USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2026 US Yield (Bushels per Acre)

USDA 2026 US Production (Billion Bushels

USDA 2026/27 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

Corn condition ratings fell by two more points this week, to 61% good/excellent; that is down from 73% last year and the 64% five-year average. North Dakota showed the biggest drop as ratings plunged 13%, followed by an 8% decline in Kansas and a 6% drop in Nebraska. The far western Corn Belt corn crop is deteriorating rapidly. Corn silking was reported to be 90%, doughing at 43%, and denting at 6%.

The weather forecast has warm temperatures in the Plains and cooler weather in the East.  Rain will continue to move through the Eastern Belt over the next two weeks. I think the crop losses in Europe, the Chinese soybean buying and wreckage in the Black Sea are holding the bottom side of this market together as the weather in the US has been improving. Wednesdays USDA report will be the next market mover as we get a better handle on what the USDA is thinking for yield.

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Despite the world’s shipping issues tied to the black Sea, weather took control of the markets late last week. With rain falling across the major corn growing areas and forecasts for more over the weekend, September, December and March, futures all traded 23 cents lower. The funds ended the week long 81,776 corn contracts and long 132,479 soybean contracts.

A drop in crop ratings held corn higher early in the week before a favorable weather forecast took over. Corn condition ratings fell four points last week to 63% good/excellent, which is below both last year (73%) and the five-year average (64%). This was the largest weekly drop in July since 2012 and the largest for this week since 2007. The rating of 63% good to excellent suggests a crop that is at or below trendline.  Of the top 18 production states, only three posted an improvement in crop conditions (Missouri, Pennsylvania and North Carolina), with Iowa and Tennessee remaining unchanged.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard targeted a US air base in Jordan in a missile attack and claimed to have hit three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, which closed shipping again. The US intercepted the attack, and along with Saudi Arabia, struck back at Iran. There remains doubt that Iran wants a diplomatic end to the war. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is threatening world energy and fertilizer supplies, and the length of the conflict is causing growing anxiety that it will carry into the Northern Hemispheres winter season when heating oil demand grows.

Beneficial rains fell across most of the corn producing states late last week and into the weekend.  with nearly 30% of the major corn production areas experiencing drought as of this past week these rains were desperately needed. Forecasts have another hot air mass building in the coming week in the Plains and then breaking down again late in the week.  It appears there will be more chances of rain as the ridge backs off.  So far, the GFS has been the better predicter of weather this summer when compared to the EU.

We are just over a week away from the USDA’s August Crop Production report which could give us some changes. Estimates for this report will be out this week and I expect most will be anticipating a lower yield due to the lack of rain in July. We will have a decent carryout from the 2025 crop which may keep prices depressed the balance of the year, but a smaller 2026 crop should tighten the balance sheet for 2027 if demand remains strong. My highest I see September (CU6) trading is $4.75. The top I see for December (CZ6) and March (CH7) are $5.05 and $5.15 respectively.

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War, Weather and Wheat were the market movers this past week. September futures ended the week 19 higher while December and March both closed 20 cents higher. The funds are now long 107,713 corn contracts and long 158,505 soybean contracts.

The US and Iran conflict has resurfaced and dominated the energy markets last week pushing crude oil up $12/barrel last week. The Russia and Ukraine conflict continued to impact the wheat market which has seen the market rally over $1.20/bushel since the first of July. Both issues have spilled over into the grain markets, moving corn, soybeans and wheat higher last week.

While the Middle East remains a mess and conflict creates demand for commodities, weather issues remain ever present and may be a bigger factor. US weather forecasts are holding the ridge over the Upper Plains and keeping temperatures elevated while keeping rain away.  So far this year the forecasts have been more extreme in temperature and moisture deficits than what we have actually experienced. While they may have missed previous forecasts, I would argue weather is more critical now than it was when those forecasts were off.

The 7–10-day forecast calls for extended heat and drought across ND, MN, IA, IL and the great lakes region. 100-degree temperatures across the Northwest Plains will continue to put pressure on the markets. The 10–15-day forecasts vary between the European and US models making it difficult to determine how big this could be in the market.

Last week’s crop progress report was down 1% with 67% of the crop reported in the Good/Excellent category. This is above the five-year average by 2% but slightly behind last year’s 74%. 59% of the crop was reported as silking compared to 53% last year and 54% on average.

With last week’s rally, we managed to close above my targets on the CBOT for September, December and March. With the current risk premium that is being traded in the market, my next target for September (CU6) is $4.75. My next targets for December (CZ6) and March (CH7) are $5.05 and $5.15 respectively.

If the extended weather forecasts hold true and conflict continues in Europe or the middle east, we could hit these levels shortly. Keep an eye on weather forecast as they change frequently this time of year and can have dramatic impacts on the markets as traders move positions.

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