The markets sold off early last week before mounting a comeback on Thursday with support from multiple angles. Stronger crude oil, end of a quarter, first notice day for July futures and a crop report this coming Tuesday all added to the rally. Ultimately corn ended the week, 3 cents lower in the September contract while December ended the week 2 lower. The funds are short 42,819 corn contracts and long 55,988 soybean contracts.

The bounce on Thursday may have signaled a bottom in the markets unless we continue to see favorable weather the rest of the summer. The 6-10 day and the 11–15-day forecasts show a lot of heat in across the corn belt. If these hold, we could see the funds rolling back into the corn market. July is the most critical time of year for the corn crop when it comes to weather. Look for traders to focus harder on weather forecasts the next two weeks as they could become interesting.

Tuesday the USDA will release their quarterly stocks and acreage report. Estimates for the report are listed below. Both stocks and acreage will be important and could move be market movers. I think the stocks should be higher than current estimates. The USDA has been using a feed demand number that is too high in my opinion. Hogs, Cattle and Poultry numbers are very similar to last year, up between .3 and 2.7% over last year. Meanwhile the USDA is using a feed number that is 17% higher than last year. On the acreage side, I am projecting the planted acres to be just over 96 million. While I am anticipating a larger planted acreage than most, I do think the final harvested number comes down due to abandonment. (flooded out acres, drought acres).

USDA June 1 Stocks (Billion Bushels)

USDA June Acreage (Million Acres)

Last Monday’s crop progress report was unchanged from the previous week with 68% of the crop in the Good/Excellent category.

I think we have a chance to take September futures back to $4.50 and December futures back to the $4.70 level. It could be weather, surprise demand, speculative buying by the funds or an acreage adjustment in one of the coming USDA reports. Have a Happy 4^th of July!

Upcoming reports

For the second week in a row, new contract lows were established in the July, September and December contract months last Monday before the market bounced to work higher. July corn ended the week 5 cents higher while September and December corn ended 4 cents higher. The funds short position was short lived as they are now long 24,194 corn and long 143,359 soybean contracts.

US and Iranian officials have started direct talks in Switzerland after signing an initial agreement to end the war last week. The deal includes a commitment to reach a final agreement within 60 days, as well as an end to fighting on “all fronts” – including in Lebanon – and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. But more clashes between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon prompted Iran to announce it had shut the shipping route on Saturday – though tracking data shows vessels have continued to pass through it.

The funds appear to be coming back to the corn market as active buyers. Technically the market’s recent selloff has stalled and is giving us a breather to analyze where things may go heading forward. Statistically the corn market is trading in the lower 10% of the five-year average. This means that over the last five years, the market has only traded lower than current levels 10% of the time.

Weather forecasts continue to offer a positive outlook in the 15–30-day timeframe with moderate temperatures and normal rainfall thru mid-July. Concern over a drought this summer is all but eliminated and switched to excessive moisture in some areas of the country.

Last Monday’s crop progress report improved 1% in the Good/Excellent category. This is 4% behind last year but 1% ahead of the five-year average. With plentiful rainfall and favorable weather across the mid-west this past week I would expect this afternoon’s conditions to remain unchanged to slightly improved.

The acreage report isn’t until the end of the month so there is still an opportunity for the Stocks and Acreage to become a bullish story. Early estimates that I have seen indicate that some traders looking for planted acres to drop 1-3 million in this report.

While I don’t expect any short-term demand spikes, I feel like we have put a floor in these markets and they are due for correction. I still think we have a chance to take July futures back to $4.40 and December futures back to the $4.70 level. It could be weather, surprise demand, speculative buying by the funds or an acreage adjustment in one of the coming USDA reports.

Upcoming reports

The corn markets continued their selloff this past week with lower energy markets and favorable weather. New lows were established in the July, September and December contract months this past week before bouncing and closing slightly above them. July corn ended the week 5 cents lower while September and December corn ended 6 cents lower. The funds are now short corn for the first time since February ending the week short 15,306 corn and long 102,859 soybean contracts.

The June Crop Production report was released and as expected was a snoozer. The only noteworthy news was in the South American production numbers where corn production in both Argentina and Brazil was increased.

USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2026/27 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2026/27 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

USDA 2025/26 South American Production (Million Tonnes)

Last Monday’s crop progress report was unchanged from the previous week with 67% of the crop in the Good/Excellent category. This is slightly below the five-year average of 69%.

Demand for US corn has been very good this year due to a big crop and low prices.  Exports have been strong; ethanol grind has been strong and feed numbers at least on paper have been strong. (I feel they are over stated) This increase in demand has given the markets some support that has been desperately needed by the producer. There doesn’t appear to be many opportunities for an increase in old crop demand moving forward with one exception, China! Will China step up to buy US corn?  I expect China to buy US corn but feel like it will be the 2026 crop and not 2025’s. I also don’t expect them to come to the table until August or September when values are historically at their lowest.

While I don’t expect any short-term demand spikes, I feel like we have put a floor in these markets and they are due for correction. I still think we have a chance to take July futures back to $4.40 and December futures back to the $4.70 level. It could be weather, surprise demand, speculative buying by the funds or an acreage adjustment in one of the coming USDA reports.

Upcoming reports

Recent rainfall and favorable weather forecasts were the fuse that lit the fire as traders exited their longs in dramatic fashion last week. The lack of Chinese trade news, additional war news and a favorable crop conditions report sent the funds to the door. July futures ended the week 30 lower while September and December corn both closed 29 cents lower. After a week of selling the funds are now only long 12,136 corn contracts and long 94,780 soybean contracts.

The Midwest saw decent rains last week, and the 15-day forecast continues to look better as rains have shifted into the southeastern US, central corn belt, and eastern corn belt. Recent drought monitor maps show that the rains that have arrived have already improved some of the Western Corn Belt and the forecasted rains could improve conditions even more.

The June Crop Production report will be out on Thursday. I don’t expect this report to be a market mover. Estimates are listed below.

USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2026/27 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2026/27 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

USDA 2025/26 South American Production (Million Tonnes)

The first crop progress report of the year showed 67% of the corn crop in the Good/Excellent range. This is slightly behind the five-year average and last year’s report for the same date. Favorable weather last week should result in a stable to slightly improved report this afternoon.

The market appears to have removed all the weather premiums that we built in April and early May. It’s only June 8^th and there is plenty of summer left to build another weather rally, so the game is not over yet. It’s my belief that the market rallied too fast at the beginning of March when the conflict started and that it recently sold off too fast based on early June weather. I expect the markets to stabilize as we move thru the balance of June and potentially take July futures back to the $4.40 level and December futures back to the $4.70 level by the end of June if we see weather issues arise, China show up to buy new crop corn or significant escalation in the Iranian conflict.

Upcoming reports

Expectations for a deal with Iran and improved Midwest weather resulted in a selloff in the corn market last week. July futures ended the week 16 lower while December corn closed 11 cents lower. The funds ended the week long 178,337 corn contracts and long 188,229 soybean contracts.

President Trump announced early last week that a deal with Iran is “largely negotiated” and he will either sign “a great and meaningful” pact with Iran “or there will be no deal”. Iran acknowledged an agreement was being discussed, but claimed the agreement wasn’t imminent and was not going to concede on the nuclear issue.

Social media posts by President Trump showed a blend of demands in addition to an agreement made with Iran to extend the ceasefire. The market took the statements as further evidence that a deal will be struck, and it was on its way to being finalized. As part of the agreement, the US lifts the naval blockade, and Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz to normal traffic without fees. Questions around how this will be enforced and whether Iran will act in good faith is what kept the energy markets from falling too hard.

This war situation has certainly become tiresome when seeing the on again/off again nature and how it impacts our markets. While corn has an excellent story from a demand perspective and potential acreage losses, we still have plenty of old-crop corn to chew through. I’m not bearish, but July futures closing below the $4.50 level on Friday was concerning as it is now trading below the levels where March and May futures expired.($4.52 ½ and $4.51 ½ respectively) As for new crop corn, I feel like we will have support at least until we see the acreage report at the end of June. For December (CZ) corn we are currently trading at the $4.75 support level. If we close below this level, we are probably headed to $4.68 which is where we closed before the war broke out.

Corn planting progress came in at 86% complete as of last Sunday night (5/24/26), which was up 10% from the previous week and 3% ahead of the five-year average. Corn emergence is 60%, which is up 21% from last week and 2% ahead of the five-year average.

The upcoming stretch of warmer and drier weather across the Midwest is expected to significantly improve crop development, accelerate emergence, and allow the last bit of planting to warp up. This warm stretch is welcome following the cool and wet spring most dealt with. We will get our first crop condition report this afternoon which should improve greatly in the next week.

Upcoming reports