Didion Weekly Market Recap

The corn markets saw another positive week of trading as demand remains strong and a slightly wetter week may slow planting progress. May and July corn ended the week 6 higher while December corn gained 7 cents on the week. The funds ended the week long 175,213 corn and long 182,573 soybean contracts.

Wet forecasts supported the corn market early in the week and then gave way to support from the wheat market. Wheat has had a couple strong weeks and is approaching recent highs due to the drought in the plains. If they continue to miss the rain we could see additional demand for corn in the west as a replacement for feed wheat later this summer.

July corn made its way back to $4.65 which is the midpoint of the last 2 months’ trading range. While I don’t expect the markets to trade significantly higher in old crop, it is impressive that we are back to these levels considering the carryout we are dealing with. For now it appears traders are going to add to their long positions until we see what happens in the middle east and how planting progress proceeds. The lack of farmer selling over the last couple weeks has helped the markets rally. If they were aggressively selling like we saw a month ago, the commercial elevators and end users would be putting on short hedges and negate the small rallies the fund traders have given us.

Corn planting progress came in at 11% complete as of last Sunday night (4/19/26) which was up from 5% last week and ahead of five-year average of 9%. Corn emergence was reported at 4%, which is up from 2% both last year and for the five-year average.

In my opinion, we do not have a story for delayed planting in the US at this point. There are some trying to pitch that idea, but it has not been a concern yet.  Monday’s crop progress report will be important to see what areas are starting to lag due to the recent rainfalls.  It may still not be a story that moves the market this week, but it will tell us where to watch to see if there will be a story in the later part of May.

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Last week the corn market managed to find some support and posted a weekly gain for the first time this month despite the energy market’s selloff. May corn ended the week 8 cents higher while July and December corn gained 6 and 5 cents respectively. The funds ended the week long 134,618 corn and long 171,081 soybean contracts.

The biggest story this past week was the announcement by Iran’s foreign minister, saying: “In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire.” Some of the shipping companies that traverse the Strait are unsure about the declaration and are officially holding off on taking advantage of the “opening” until they get further clarity. The US continues to maintain a blockade of contraband shipments and sweep for mines.  The energy market’s view comments about the straights opening as positive for crude oil flow and bearish the markets. Following the news, crude oil dropped 10-15% of its value.  Since corn has recently separated itself from the value of crude oil, it was able to maintain its strength despite the selloff.

Tensions in the middle east and the straights passage will continue to remain on traders’ radar, but US weather should become the focus moving forward. Recent rains across the Midwest have helped replenish droughty subsoil conditions left over from the winter but could begin to delay planting if they persist into later April. The Southern Plains are very dry, and rain chances remain very uncertain over the next 10 days which has supported the Wheat markets and spilled over into the corn market.

Planting progress went from 3% to 5% complete as of last Sunday night. This is in line with last year and the five-year average. Rains across the Midwest last week should have limited any significant progress so we should still be close to seasonal progress in this afternoon’s report.

We must keep our focus on the things we know, we have a ton of old crop corn on hand, and we are forecasted to plant enough acres to keep supplies strong. The planted acres story could change slightly depending on weather this spring and summer, but the stocks story is not going to change. Based on this fundamental data, I do not look for the markets to break out of their current trading ranges barring any dramatic weather events. Sales should be made on any small rallies and purchases should be made on any drops. Weekly planting progress and next month WASDE should give us direction for the 2026/27 crop.

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Corn continued its downward trend this past week as corn and crude oil continue to diverge from each other amid potential talks between the US and Iran. May corn ended the week 11 cents lower while July and December futures are 12 and 9 cents lower respectively. The funds sold close to 40,000 contracts to end the week long 182,476 corn contracts. The funds had little movement in their soybean position, ending the week long 192,805 contracts.

On Thursday the USDA released their April WASDE report that as expected was neutral for corn and soybeans. For corn, there were no changes from the previous month. Domestic ending stocks remain at 2,127 million bu.  This was below the average estimate of 2,143. On the world balance sheet, global ending stocks are forecast slightly higher at 294.81 MMT. Corn exports and ethanol demand remain on track to meet the USDA projections for the year. Despite some demand increases at the global level, world ending stocks climbed 2 mmt.

The US and Iran appear to have a ceasefire, but it still feels tenuous and crude oil continued to trade that way last week. Despite big moves in oil, the corn markets appear to be separating themselves from the volatility of crude for the time being. Despite corns connection to the energy market, I believe this separation is supported by the lack of any fundamental change in the size of last year’s crop and the carryout we are looking at. Until new crop corn fails to meet current estimates, old crop corn will struggle to rally.

Look for the markets focus to shift to early season planting progress and next month’s WASDE where the USDA will publish its first balance sheet for the 2026/27 crop year.

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A slightly bearish USDA report and comments about the war’s potential de-escalation kept pressure on the markets this past week. Corn ended the week 10 lower in the May and July contracts and 9 lower in the December contract. The funds are long 266,630 corn and 200,350 soybean contracts.

In last weeks WASDE report, the USDA pegged 2026 corn acreage at 95.338 million acres, slightly above the average estimate of 94.481 million acres. Corn acres in 2025/26 totaled 98.788 million. If realized, 2026 planted acres would represent a decrease of 3.450 million acres, or 3.5 percent year over year. Roughly 2 million of those acres came out of 5 states: Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota and South Dakota. Historically, corn acres harvested for grain average 91.8% of the planted area so roughly 87.5 million acres would be harvested this year. Using trendline yields from the Ag Outlook Forum last month of 183.0 bpa, this would imply a production estimate of 16.013 billion bushels versus 17.021 billion in 2025. Assuming similar demand, stocks next year will drop below 2 billion bushels, but remain adequate to meet anticipated demand, but have little margin for error if weather problems occur during this growing season. Official demand forecasts will be made available in the May WASDE report that will be out on May 12th.

Corn stocks came in slightly below expectations, suggesting that either the USDA overstated the size of last year’s crop or demand was up in one or more categories during the first quarter. Despite coming in lower, this years March stocks report was a record high at just over 9 billion bushels. This was an 11% increase over last year and beat the previous record (2023/24) by 677 million.

USDA March 1 Stocks (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2026 Prospective Plantings (Million Acres)

On Friday President Trump warned Iran that they need to open the Strait of Hormuz by his Monday deadline or face severe consequences. Trump called Iran beaten and completely decimated in the war, but the downing of two US warplanes on Friday and Iran’s call to find the “enemy pilot” appear to have again raised the stakes.  “The doors of hell will be opened to you” if Iran’s infrastructure is attacked, Gen. Ali Abdollahi Aliabadi with the country’s joint military command said late Saturday in response to Trump’s renewed threat, state media reported. In turn, the general threatened all infrastructure used by the U.S. military in the region. Based on these comments

I would expect the markets to open stronger on Monday when we resume trade following the holiday weekend.

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With the middle east conflict ongoing and a big report on the horizon, the commodity markets assumed a sideways trajectory as traders look for the safest position ahead of the upcoming news. Corn ended the week 3 lower in the May and July contracts and 1 lower in the December contract. The funds are long 285,630 corn and 198,350 soybean contracts.

Late last week, President Trump again pushed back his deadline for Iran to agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face attacks on its power infrastructure. The 10-day extension was his second since Saturday’s threat to destroy the critical infrastructure in the absence of Tehran accepting a 15-point list of ceasefire terms. This sent crude oil back over $100/barrel and added support to corn and soybeans. Trump keeps extending his deadline and so far, Iran has shown no signs of backing down.

The EPA’s finalized Renewable Fuel Standard “Set 2” rule, was announced on Friday at the White House, sets biofuel blending requirements for 2026–2027 at record levels, reinforcing a structurally stronger demand outlook for U.S. agriculture—particularly corn and soybean oil. The rule maintains the 15-billion-gallon conventional ethanol mandate while driving a more than 60% increase in biomass-based diesel demand, alongside a 70% reallocation of small refinery exemptions, all of which tightens the effective mandate and supports RIN values. The policy also tilts future demand toward domestic feedstocks by discounting foreign fuels starting in 2028, further anchoring U.S. soybean oil and crush demand. This is a bullish policy shift for the ag complex, boosting farm income potential, supporting crush margins, and reinforcing the energy-to-ag demand chain into 2026–2027.

On Tuesday the USDA will release their March WASDE at 11:00am. Estimates for this report are listed below.

USDA March 1 Stocks (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2026 Prospective Plantings (Million Acres)

The March 31^st planting intentions report is one of the more volatile reports of the year and it gives us a baseline for the farmer’s intentions entering a new crop season. This report is based on survey data collected from farmers between late February and mid-March based on assumptions about their planting intentions, which could (and to some degree will) change depending on weather, market prices, or fertilizer costs and availability. Commodity prices have rallied and input costs have escalated since a lot of this data was collected, so this year’s report may not be as accurate as it would have been before the conflict in the middle east. While it may not be accurate, these are the numbers that the trade will use until we get more accurate numbers in the June report.

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