The corn market posted a nice rally last week as it continues its up and down trend while searching for something to give it direction. The corn market has spent the last 6 months in a narrow trading range with the center at $4.45 in the March contract. March, May and July futures all ended the week 8 cents higher. The funds have stepped to the sideline heading into Monday’s report as they are long 170 corn contracts and long 67,807 soybean contracts.
We have finally made it to report day! Today at 11am the USDA will release the January WASDE which is one of the more highly anticipated reports of the year. There will be a lot of data to digest, but the biggest focus will be on yield and ending stocks. Estimates for today’s report are listed below.
USDA 2025 Harvested Acres (Million acres)
| USDA Jan 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA Nov. 2025 | |
| Corn | 89.974 | 90.047 | |
| Soybeans | 80.280 | 80.313 |
USDA 2025 Yield (Bushels per acre)
| USDA Jan 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA Nov. 2025 | |
| Corn | 184.0 | 186.0 | |
| Soybeans | 52.7 | 53.0 |
USDA 2025 Production (Billion Bushels)
| USDA Jan 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA Nov. 2025 | |
| Corn | 16.552 | 16.752 | |
| Soybeans | 4.229 | 4.253 |
USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| USDA Jan 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA Dec 2025 | |
| Corn | 1.972 | 2.209 | |
| Soybeans | .292 | .290 | |
| Wheat | .896 | .901 |
Last year’s report caught the trade by surprise dropping corn yield 4bpa (183 to 179). This fueled a rally that continued into Feb and prompted a massive amount of selling that dropped spreads and basis promptly.
While most are looking for a drop in corn yields, it stands to reason the USDA could lower demand on a lower production number. Regardless, if we could get stocks under 2 billion bushels, this corn market might find some life at any hint of weather issues, either in the US or South America.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 1/12/2026 | Crop Production/Quarterly Stocks |
| 2/10/2026 | Crop Production |
