The markets recovered from losses early in the week to close 2 cents higher in the March contract and 3 cents higher in the May and July contracts. Support from the soybean market on news of additional export business was the catalyst this past week. The funds ended the week short 42,613 corn contracts and long 131,153 soybean contracts.
President Trump’s Truth Social post on Wednesday following a phone call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping triggered a bullish response in the soybean market. Trump said he encouraged Xi to have China purchase more U.S. ag goods, including increasing 2025-26 soybean purchases from 12 million metric tons to 20 million metric tons. He also reiterated that China has committed to buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans for 2026-27. Following these comments the soybean market managed to rally 50+ cents in most of the old crop contract months. While this didn’t pull corn as much as I would normally anticipate, it did add strength and help raise the support levels in the corn charts.
The USDA will release their February Crop Production report on Tuesday. Estimates are listed below.
USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| USDA February 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA January 2026 | |
| Corn | 2.227 | 2.227 | |
| Soybeans | .347 | .350 | |
| Wheat | .918 | .926 |
USDA 2025/26 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)
| USDA February 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA January 2026 | |
| Corn | 290.48 | 290.91 | |
| Soybeans | 125.30 | 124.41 | |
| Wheat | 279.24 | 278.25 |
USDA 2025/26 South American Production (Million Tonnes)
| USDA February 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA January 2026 | |
| Argentina Corn | 52.92 | 53.00 | |
| Argentina Soybeans | 48.38 | 48.50 | |
| Brazil Corn | 132.58 | 131.00 | |
| Brazil Soybeans | 179.39 | 178.00 |
Brazil soybean harvest is slightly behind last the five-year average while first crop corn harvest is about 5% behind the five-year average. Brazil’s second crop corn planting is 3 % behind the five-year average.
Weather in Brazil has been favorable with beneficial rains that will help soybeans but may slow some second crop corn planning. In Argentina, most of the corn and soybeans remain dry with limited rain in the short-term forecasts. The 7-day forecasts are calling for beneficial rain, but coverage is still uncertain.
The US acreage situation is what is at the forefront for the corn market right now. With the E15 situation unsettled, there is no bullish news on corn demand that wasn’t in place last year. For now, it’s up to the markets to persuade corn acres to bean acres to avoid oversupplies in 26/27.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 2/10/2026 | Crop Production |
| 3/31/2026 | Grain Stocks/Prospective Plantings |
