I feel like we the markets have been reenacting the movie “Groundhogs Day” with Bill Murray where he wakes up every morning to repeat the same thing that happened the day before. The only difference in the markets is we are doing it week to week versus day to day. Over the last four weeks we have started out weaker only to rally at the end of the week with minimal gains. Like the previous week, last week’s rally was on the heels of strength in the soybean market. March futures ended the week 2 cents higher while May and July futures ended 3 and 5 cents higher. The funds end the week short 43,493 corn and long 115,396 soybean contracts.
On Tuesday the USDA released their February Crop Production report that gave us an update on demand and carryout figures for domestic and world balance sheets. The USDA raised domestic export projections by 100 million bushels to 3.3 billion bushels reflecting sales and shipments to date. With no other changes noted to the domestic balance sheet, ending stocks were lowered by a similar amount to 2.127 billion bushels. This was below both the average trade guess of 2.227 billion. The world balance sheet featured lower ending stocks with most of that coming from the U.S. World-ending stocks were projected at 288.98 MMT, down 1.9 million from January and below the average trade estimate of 290.48 MMT.
USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| USDA February 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA January 2026 | |
| Corn | 2.127 | 2.227 | 2.227 |
| Soybeans | .350 | .347 | .350 |
| Wheat | .931 | .918 | .926 |
USDA 2025/26 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)
| USDA February 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA January 2026 | |
| Corn | 288.98 | 290.48 | 290.91 |
| Soybeans | 125.51 | 125.30 | 124.41 |
| Wheat | 277.51 | 279.24 | 278.25 |
USDA 2025/26 South American Production (Million Tonnes)
| USDA February 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA January 2026 | |
| Argentina Corn | 53.00 | 52.92 | 53.00 |
| Argentina Soybeans | 48.50 | 48.38 | 48.50 |
| Brazil Corn | 131.00 | 132.58 | 131.00 |
| Brazil Soybeans | 180.00 | 179.39 | 178.00 |
On Thursday Conab (Brazil’s version of USDA) updated its Brazilian corn crop estimate and lowered it .4 mmt to 138.5 mmt. They lowered their Safrihna (2nd crop) by 1.2 mmt to 109.3 mmt. The Safrihna crop isn’t even ¼ planted and Conab is trimming its potential. What is also interesting is that Conab has flipped its relationship with the USDA’s estimates. In the past, it was regularly a discount to USDA projections, and now it’s a premium and not just a small one.
This week we will get our first look at what the USDA is thinking on the 2026 crop. The World Agricultural Outlook Board meets February 19th through the 20th. This is an economic meeting where the USDA projects their supply and demand numbers for the next 10 years. The data that they will provide will be used for budgetary projections. The most important numbers the trade will be looking for are the trend yields. Normally, the trend yields they release in the forum are used in the May WASDE report when they make their first new crop projections for corn and soybeans.
Market attention will continue focus on harvest progress in South America, with production estimates still subject to change in coming reports pending field results from Brazil and Argentina. Attention will also begin to shift towards the new-crop growing season in the U.S., with planting and field preparations already underway in Texas.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 2/16/2026 | No Markets – Presidents Day |
| 3/10/2026 | Crop Production |
| 3/31/2026 | Grain Stocks/Prospective Plantings |
