Week Ending 3/13/2026

In times of conflict, any market that is tied to energy does not wait for physical shortages, they price in probability. This is exactly what we have been witnessing over the last couple weeks in the corn market. May, July and December futures all ended the week 7 cents higher.  The funds have taken a strong position adding to their length in both corn and soybeans over the last two weeks. They ended last week long 218,804 corn contracts and long 232,454 soybean contracts.

The Iranian conflict has helped corn and soybeans find strength with crude oil rallying on increased Strait of Hormuz risks. Reports of a cargo ship being hit by unknown projectile and its crew evacuating the vessel supported concerns regarding transportation in the region early last week. Despite President Trump claiming it was happening, the US Navy was accused of denying all requests for escort in the Strait last week. Unnamed officials were quoted as saying the risk in the region was too great to begin escorting commercial vessels.

Stories about the rising costs of fertilizer influencing US planting decisions have also circulated resulting in stronger new crop corn values. Prices of fertilizer have increased more than 30% over the last couple weeks, but corn prices have also rallied. Depending on the area and operation, the corn rally appears to have covered the increase in fertilizer costs so far. The concern going forward is whether it continues to rally to cover any further increase in nitrogen prices.

The USDA report on Tuesday was essentially a non-event with no changes to the US balance sheet. While the USDA raised world production slightly, the report didn’t give us much new information at all.

2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)

2025/26 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)

December futures reached a high of $4.985 on Monday of last week before selling off and ending the week at $4.915. I do not feel that crude oil is done running higher and expect higher crude is going to take December corn futures back over $5 in the next week as tensions remain. The funds just started going long corn and if they keep doing so, prices are going to get better. $5 December futures will buy a lot of new crop corn from producers. This war is escalating more each day, and I’d expect more this coming week. Buyers and sellers need to keep in mind that this is all about crude oil as there is no fundamental story for corn to rally at the present time. Be sure to get sales on the books and offers in with your buyers because this market will drop faster than it rallied and you don’t want to try catching a falling knife!

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