Week Ending 3/27/2026

With the middle east conflict ongoing and a big report on the horizon, the commodity markets assumed a sideways trajectory as traders look for the safest position ahead of the upcoming news. Corn ended the week 3 lower in the May and July contracts and 1 lower in the December contract. The funds are long 285,630 corn and 198,350 soybean contracts.

Late last week, President Trump again pushed back his deadline for Iran to agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face attacks on its power infrastructure. The 10-day extension was his second since Saturday’s threat to destroy the critical infrastructure in the absence of Tehran accepting a 15-point list of ceasefire terms. This sent crude oil back over $100/barrel and added support to corn and soybeans. Trump keeps extending his deadline and so far, Iran has shown no signs of backing down.

The EPA’s finalized Renewable Fuel Standard “Set 2” rule, was announced on Friday at the White House, sets biofuel blending requirements for 2026–2027 at record levels, reinforcing a structurally stronger demand outlook for U.S. agriculture—particularly corn and soybean oil. The rule maintains the 15-billion-gallon conventional ethanol mandate while driving a more than 60% increase in biomass-based diesel demand, alongside a 70% reallocation of small refinery exemptions, all of which tightens the effective mandate and supports RIN values. The policy also tilts future demand toward domestic feedstocks by discounting foreign fuels starting in 2028, further anchoring U.S. soybean oil and crush demand. This is a bullish policy shift for the ag complex, boosting farm income potential, supporting crush margins, and reinforcing the energy-to-ag demand chain into 2026–2027.

On Tuesday the USDA will release their March WASDE at 11:00am. Estimates for this report are listed below.

USDA March 1 Stocks (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2026 Prospective Plantings (Million Acres)

The March 31^st planting intentions report is one of the more volatile reports of the year and it gives us a baseline for the farmer’s intentions entering a new crop season. This report is based on survey data collected from farmers between late February and mid-March based on assumptions about their planting intentions, which could (and to some degree will) change depending on weather, market prices, or fertilizer costs and availability. Commodity prices have rallied and input costs have escalated since a lot of this data was collected, so this year’s report may not be as accurate as it would have been before the conflict in the middle east. While it may not be accurate, these are the numbers that the trade will use until we get more accurate numbers in the June report.

Upcoming reports