Week Ending 4/3/2026

A slightly bearish USDA report and comments about the war’s potential de-escalation kept pressure on the markets this past week. Corn ended the week 10 lower in the May and July contracts and 9 lower in the December contract. The funds are long 266,630 corn and 200,350 soybean contracts.

In last weeks WASDE report, the USDA pegged 2026 corn acreage at 95.338 million acres, slightly above the average estimate of 94.481 million acres. Corn acres in 2025/26 totaled 98.788 million. If realized, 2026 planted acres would represent a decrease of 3.450 million acres, or 3.5 percent year over year. Roughly 2 million of those acres came out of 5 states: Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota and South Dakota. Historically, corn acres harvested for grain average 91.8% of the planted area so roughly 87.5 million acres would be harvested this year. Using trendline yields from the Ag Outlook Forum last month of 183.0 bpa, this would imply a production estimate of 16.013 billion bushels versus 17.021 billion in 2025. Assuming similar demand, stocks next year will drop below 2 billion bushels, but remain adequate to meet anticipated demand, but have little margin for error if weather problems occur during this growing season. Official demand forecasts will be made available in the May WASDE report that will be out on May 12th.

Corn stocks came in slightly below expectations, suggesting that either the USDA overstated the size of last year’s crop or demand was up in one or more categories during the first quarter. Despite coming in lower, this years March stocks report was a record high at just over 9 billion bushels. This was an 11% increase over last year and beat the previous record (2023/24) by 677 million.

USDA March 1 Stocks (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2026 Prospective Plantings (Million Acres)

On Friday President Trump warned Iran that they need to open the Strait of Hormuz by his Monday deadline or face severe consequences. Trump called Iran beaten and completely decimated in the war, but the downing of two US warplanes on Friday and Iran’s call to find the “enemy pilot” appear to have again raised the stakes.  “The doors of hell will be opened to you” if Iran’s infrastructure is attacked, Gen. Ali Abdollahi Aliabadi with the country’s joint military command said late Saturday in response to Trump’s renewed threat, state media reported. In turn, the general threatened all infrastructure used by the U.S. military in the region. Based on these comments

I would expect the markets to open stronger on Monday when we resume trade following the holiday weekend.

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