Do we finally have a Spring Rally? The corn market continued its move higher this past week with several different stories fueling the fire. From drought in the west to excessive rains in the mid-west and stronger crude oil prices everything was supportive. July corn ended the week 17 cents higher while December corn gained 15 cents. The funds ended the week long 274,572 corn and 185,910 soybean contracts.
Strength early in the week came on the heels of the wheat market that has been rallying due to drought conditions in the plains. The major wheat growing areas have continued to miss rain and crop conditions continue to deteriorate. As of last Monday, 70% of the US wheat growing areas were experiencing moderate or worse drought conditions. The only time it has been this high was in 2022 when we saw wheat rally to more than $12/bushel early in the year due to drought. When wheat prices rise, livestock producers shift to feeding cheaper corn, increasing demand and lifting corn prices. Below is a chart showing the correlation between wheat and corn on the CBOT.
Weather forecasts for the mid-west late in the week added some support to the markets as traders begin to hedge the possibility of corn planting delays. The next 10-day forecast calls for rain across the mid-west from a tenth to five plus inches. Planting progress was ahead of pace in last Monday’s report, but rains last week slowed progress and could bring us back to average if not below in this afternoon’s report. While we are seeing some support, I personally think we need to get to the second week of May with major planting delays before the market pays serious attention. Larger planters and improved technology have significantly reduced the time it takes to get the crop planted. My concern is not that the acres get planted, but the fact that later planted crops in less-than-ideal conditions typically do not yield well.
The recent corn rally has been very impressive. December corn closed higher in 10 of the last 11 trading sessions while taking out contract highs. While it failed to close above $5 last week, it did trade as high as $5.0175 before settling at $4.9875 to end the week.
Corn planting progress came in at 25% complete as of last Sunday night (4/26/26), which was up from 11% last week and ahead of five-year average of 19%. Corn emergence was reported at 7%, which is up from 5% last year and 4% for the five-year average.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 5/4/2026 | Crop Progress |
| 5/12/2026 | Crop Production |
