Corn ended the week on a positive note with some profit taking and more middle east conflict positioning ahead of the weekend. Despite a higher close on Friday, the markets ended the week lower and back below the $5 level. July corn ended 9 lower while December futures were down 6 cents. The funds are long 357,641 corn contracts and long 217,514 soybean contracts.
The Iran negotiations that sent the market lower on Wednesday following news that the US and Iran were “close to a deal” appeared to have fallen apart by Friday. Iran attacked two US warships in the Straight on Friday showing that they are not on the same page as President Trump when it comes to negotiation progress.
While the Iran conflict goes on, the Trump-Xi meeting is scheduled to go forward as planned this week. The bean market has been supported by this news recently and could offer support to corn longer term. I am still skeptical of any huge announcement with the Chinese coming directly from the meeting, but it will be positive the markets long term.
Weather was contusive to planting across most of the US Midwest this past week which should have resulted in progress well north of 50% complete in Monday afternoon’s report. Based on the 7-day forecasts, it looks like we have a window to advance in areas that have struggled with cool and wet conditions in the ECB. Overall, it looks like we will get the crop planted again this year.
On Tuesday the USDA will release their May WASDE. Estimates for this report are listed below. I don’t expect much movement in the markets due to these numbers, but most traders are anxious to get their first look at 2026/27 carryout projections.
USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| USDA May 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA April 2026 | |
| Corn | 2.128 | 2.127 | |
| Soybeans | .345 | .350 | |
| Wheat | .934 | .938 |
USDA 2026/27 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| USDA May 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA April 2026 | |
| Corn | 1.922 | N/A | |
| Soybeans | .361 | N/A | |
| Wheat | .820 | N/A |
USDA 2025/26 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)
| USDA May 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA April 2026 | |
| Corn | 296.33 | 294.81 | |
| Soybeans | 125.27 | 124.79 | |
| Wheat | 282.93 | 283.12 |
USDA 2026/27 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)
| USDA May 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA April 2026 | |
| Corn | 288.48 | N/A | |
| Soybeans | 126.08 | N/A | |
| Wheat | 280.55 | N/A |
USDA 2025/26 South American Production (Million Tonnes)
| USDA May 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA April 2026 | |
| ARG Corn | 56.07 | 52.00 | |
| ARG Soybeans | 48.46 | 48.00 | |
| BRZ Corn | 133.46 | 132.00 | |
| BRZ Soybeans | 180.19 | 180.00 |
Corn planting progress came in at 38% complete as of last Sunday night (5/3/26), which was up 13% from the previous week. I look for this afternoon’s report to show the US close to 60% complete.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 5/11/2026 | Crop Progress |
| 5/12/2026 | Crop Production |
