There were a lot of potential news stories in the markets this past week but ultimately it was the lack of news that moved the market. A neutral to bullish USDA report, approval of E-15 and positive meetings between President trump and Xi were all positive. Ultimately the lack of any new business with China was what moved the markets lower to end the week. July corn ended the week 16 cents lower while December corn lost 13 cents. The funds ended the week-long 235,120 corn and long 161,023soybean contracts.
On Tuesday the USDA released their May WASDE. This report was considered bullish for wheat and soybeans while neutral for corn. For corn, USDA’s first 2026/27 balance sheet held few surprises. Production is forecast at 15.995 billion bushels, slightly above pre-report estimates at 15.948 billion bushels. National average yields are initially pegged at a weather-adjusted trend of 183.0 and are subject to change as the growing season advances. On the demand side of the balance sheet, exports are lowered by 150 million bushels from the 2025/26 crop year likely due to smaller expected production. While exports are projected to be lower than last season, if realized, this forecast would be the second largest on record. USDA also pegs feed and residual use down from prior year due to smaller supplies. Initial new-crop ending stocks are forecast at 1.957 billion bushels, down 170 million bushels from the 2025/26 season. This puts the stocks-to-usage ratio at 12.1% compared to 13.0% in 2025/26.
USDA 2025/26 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| USDA May 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA April 2026 | |
| Corn | 2.142 | 2.128 | 2.127 |
| Soybeans | .340 | .345 | .350 |
| Wheat | .935 | .934 | .938 |
USDA 2026/27 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| USDA May 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA April 2026 | |
| Corn | 1.957 | 1.922 | N/A |
| Soybeans | .310 | .361 | N/A |
| Wheat | .762 | .820 | N/A |
USDA 2025/26 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)
| USDA May 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA April 2026 | |
| Corn | 296.95 | 296.33 | 294.81 |
| Soybeans | 125.13 | 125.27 | 124.79 |
| Wheat | 279.21 | 282.93 | 283.12 |
USDA 2026/27 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)
| USDA May 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA April 2026 | |
| Corn | 277.54 | 288.48 | N/A |
| Soybeans | 124.78 | 126.08 | N/A |
| Wheat | 275.04 | 280.55 | N/A |
USDA 2025/26 South American Production (Million Tonnes)
| USDA May 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA April 2026 | |
| ARG Corn | 59.00 | 56.07 | 52.00 |
| ARG Soybeans | 48.00 | 48.46 | 48.00 |
| BRZ Corn | 135.00 | 133.46 | 132.00 |
| BRZ Soybeans | 180.00 | 180.19 | 180.00 |
On Wednesday the House of Representatives passed HB 1346 – which would allow year-round sales of E-15. This now must get through the Senate which will be a much steeper hill to climb. If approved this would gradually increase corn demand for fuel but would take time as additional infrastructure needs to be built and the consumer had to demand it before we would see any major demand.
The meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi went on as scheduled, but there was nothing new reported in terms of additional agriculture business. The markets were hoping for a glimpse of additional soybean business and potential new corn business but heard nothing. This resulted in corn, soybeans and wheat prices all seeing a dramatic decline on Thursday and Friday.
Corn planting progress came in at 57% complete as of last Sunday night (5/10/26), which was up 19% from the previous week. I look for this afternoon’s report to show the US close to 80% complete.
The market’s focus for the next few weeks will be on the two great unknowns. US weather and the Iranian conflict. Both could move the markets multiple directions over the next few weeks or months.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 5/18/2026 | Crop Progress |
| 5/25/2026 | Memorial Day – No Markets |
| 6/11/2026 | Crop Production |
