Corn was higher last week mainly due to a big rally on Monday based on US and Chinese news. Talk that the US and Iran were once again close to a deal mid-week brought the markets back into check to finish out the week. July futures ended the week 7 higher while December corn closed 6 cents higher. The funds ended the week long 261,342 corn contracts and long 189,037 soybean contracts.
Corn rebounded from the sharp losses the previous week as we received more details of what President Trump and Xi agreed on during their meeting began to surface. According to China’s commerce ministry, the two countries will pursue reciprocal tariff reductions and other measures aimed at boosting trade flows, including for agriculture. Beijing said negotiations are continuing over which products would receive tariff relief and how the reductions would be implemented.
The White House said China has also agreed to purchase at least $17 billion in U.S. agricultural products annually through 2028 in addition to soybean purchases commitments that it made in October 2025. The $17 billion annual commitment would provide important support for major export sectors including corn, wheat, sorghum, ork, beef, poultry, dairy, cotton and ethanol related products (DDGS).
On Wednesday Chinese president Xi Jinping’s comments regarding the Iranian conflict pushed the markets lower. Xi stated that “A broad ceasefire is imperative; restarting the war is even more unacceptable, and engaging in negotiations is particularly important.” Traders took this as a sign of diminished support for Iran from its ally, China, to hasten the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which has restricted the flow of needed goods to China’s economy.
Short term the markets appear to be in a comfortable trading range given the stocks we are dealing with this year. But given the potential increase in biofuel demand around the world in the coming years, we could see additional support for the 2026 crop and beyond. While the US is still in the process of approving year-round E15 blending, the rest of the world is also increasing demand for ethanol. Vietnam launches its E10 mandate on June 1st. It projects that it will need 18 to 19 million gallons of ethanol to supplement its domestic output to make the E10 project a reality. That is about ¼ of what the US sends to its top destination (Canada) monthly. If Vietnam chooses the US as its main supplier, it could boost US exports by 10% and subsequently increase ethanol demand 1 to 1.5% annually. India is also launching an ethanol mandate that will double or triple its demand. India plans on using corn in the expansion of ethanol production as its feedstock. India is currently not a net importer/exporter of corn so they will either seek imported corn or choose ethanol imports to supplement its expanded ethanol program.
Corn planting progress came in at 76% complete as of last Sunday night (5/17/26), which was up 19% from the previous week and 6% ahead of the five-year average. Corn emergence is 39%, which is up 16% from last week and 2% ahead of the five-year average.
The market’s focus for the next few weeks will continue to be on the unknowns, US weather and the Iranian conflict. Both could move the markets multiple directions over the next few weeks or months. There’s no way of knowing where this corn market might go, but I look for it to stay supported until we see the June planted acreage.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 5/26/2026 | Crop Progress |
| 6/11/2026 | Crop Production |
