The markets sold off early last week before mounting a comeback on Thursday with support from multiple angles. Stronger crude oil, end of a quarter, first notice day for July futures and a crop report this coming Tuesday all added to the rally. Ultimately corn ended the week, 3 cents lower in the September contract while December ended the week 2 lower. The funds are short 42,819 corn contracts and long 55,988 soybean contracts.
The bounce on Thursday may have signaled a bottom in the markets unless we continue to see favorable weather the rest of the summer. The 6-10 day and the 11–15-day forecasts show a lot of heat in across the corn belt. If these hold, we could see the funds rolling back into the corn market. July is the most critical time of year for the corn crop when it comes to weather. Look for traders to focus harder on weather forecasts the next two weeks as they could become interesting.
Tuesday the USDA will release their quarterly stocks and acreage report. Estimates for the report are listed below. Both stocks and acreage will be important and could move be market movers. I think the stocks should be higher than current estimates. The USDA has been using a feed demand number that is too high in my opinion. Hogs, Cattle and Poultry numbers are very similar to last year, up between .3 and 2.7% over last year. Meanwhile the USDA is using a feed number that is 17% higher than last year. On the acreage side, I am projecting the planted acres to be just over 96 million. While I am anticipating a larger planted acreage than most, I do think the final harvested number comes down due to abandonment. (flooded out acres, drought acres).
USDA June 1 Stocks (Billion Bushels)
| June 2026 | Average Estimate | June 2025 | |
| Corn | 5.408 | 4.643 | |
| Soybeans | 1.046 | 1.008 | |
| Wheat | .934 | .855 |
USDA June Acreage (Million Acres)
| June 2026 | Average Estimate | March 2026 | |
| Corn | 94.992 | 95.338 | |
| Soybeans | 85.369 | 84.700 | |
| Wheat | 43.858 | 43.775 |
Last Monday’s crop progress report was unchanged from the previous week with 68% of the crop in the Good/Excellent category.
I think we have a chance to take September futures back to $4.50 and December futures back to the $4.70 level. It could be weather, surprise demand, speculative buying by the funds or an acreage adjustment in one of the coming USDA reports. Have a Happy 4th of July!
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 6/29/2026 | Crop Progress |
| 6/30/2026 | Quarterly Stocks/Acreage revisions |
| 7/3/2026 | No Markets |
| 7/10/2026 | Crop Production |
