Corn traded in a 20-cent range last week but ultimately settled unchanged to a penny higher in most contract months. Weather across the Midwest, China and US meetings along with rumors of peace in Iran kept traders’ attention during the week. The funds ended the week long 428,097 corn and long 277,159 soybean contracts.
President Trump and Chinese President Xi’s meeting had traders’ attention late last week. Following the conclusion of the meeting, there was no immediate mention of the 17-billion-dollar Ag purchase and no discussion of the 25 million metric ton soybean deal which sent the markets lower Thursday evening into Friday mornings trade. Fridays mid – morning comments from President Trump that the meeting was “very productive” and the US farmer would be “very happy” with the agreement caused the markets to rebound and trade back to unchanged to slightly higher to end the day. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated Friday morning that the US and China have reached agreements on a subset of goods they can trade and that details of the agreement were going to be released on Monday September 28th.
Late last week Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume talks on its nuclear program within seven days if the United States lifts its naval blockade of Iranian ports, waives sanctions on Iranian oil sales and observes a ceasefire that would include Lebanon. These comments pushed crude oil $4-5/barrel lower to end the week. On Saturday President Trump said that he had rejected the Iranian proposal to reopen the Straight stating that they wanted to make a deal where they open the straight immediately because they’re losing so badly.
On Wednesday September 30th the USDA will release its quarterly stocks report. Estimates for the report are listed below.
USDA September 1st Stocks (Billion Bushels)
| USDA September 2026 | Average Estimate | USDA September 2025 | |
| Corn | 1.918 | 1.551 | |
| Soybeans | .325 | .325 | |
| Wheat | 1.889 | 2.134 |
Harvest progress remained slightly ahead of the five-year average at 13% complete last week. Yields continue to be reported in a wide range, but most of them are 10-20 bushels off last year’s results.
Historically the markets trend lower heading into October before slowly grinding higher into the end of the year. With the geopolitical influences and events, we have taking place today, I expect a lot more volatility and would look to capture both high and low that the market offers. Demand has been strong, but high prices have made the US less competitive over the last 30 days, and it is showing in export sales which is the first place it shows up.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 9/28/2026 | Crop Progress |
| 9/30/2026 | Quarterly Stocks |
