The markets reversed direction following the bearish WASDE report last week. December, March and May futures all ended the week 30 cents lower on the week. The funds ended reduced their long position by 128,000 contracts and are now long 299,220 corn contracts while they remain long 232,558 soybean contracts.
The markets saw massive selling following the stocks report on Wednesday as the USDA confirmed it had been overestimating the 2025/26 feed demand. The average estimate for the September 1 stocks number was 1.918 million bushels. What the USDA delivered was 2.095-million-bushel carryout which came about through a combination of a slightly lower production number and ultimately a smaller feed demand number.
The 2.095 carryout offer a supply buffer to the 2026/27 supply and demand table. This adjustment is equivalent to adding almost 2 bushels per acre to the 2026 crop. Instead of a 178.5 yield that the USDA gave us back in August, technically just became greater than 180.
| USDA September 1 Stocks (Billion Bushel) | |||
| USDA Sept. 2026 | Average Est. | USDA Sept. 2025 | |
| Corn | 2.095 | 1.918 | 1.551 |
| Soybeans | 0.315 | 0.325 | 0.325 |
| Wheat | 1.846 | 1.889 | 2.134 |
On Friday October 9th the USDA will release its October crop production report. While not a lot of changes are expected, one that could surface is an adjustment to expected yield. Early reports from the southern states have reported yields below last year and in some cases by as much as 20 or more bushels. Will we see an adjustment lower or will the USDA surprise the majority with a higher yield. The only estimate available at the time of this writing was from well-known Stone X, whose estimates for this year’s crop come at 182.1 bushel per acre.
Harvest progress slowed last week and came in at 18% complete which is right in line with the five-year average. With excessive rains across the Midwest this past week, this afternoon’s report should show progress falling behind the average.
Historically the markets trend lower heading into October before slowly grinding higher into the end of the year. We filled the $5.09 CZ26 gap this past week and closed below multiple support levels to end the week. Look for the markets to stabilize heading into Friday’s report. Any significant adjustments on Friday could carry through until the November 10th crop production report.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 10/5/2026 | Crop Progress |
| 10/9/2026 | Crop Production |
