The corn markets treaded water early in the week before sinking following Fridays USDA report that increased production and carryout of the 2026/27 crop. December corn ended the week 18 cents lower while March and May futures each lost 17 cents. The funds have reduced their long position in corn by over 70,000 contracts since the first of October and ended the week long 236,839 corn contracts and long 220,066 soybean contracts.
Fridays USDA report projected the 2026/27 yield at 181.2 bushels per acre which was at the top end of pre report estimates and 2.7 bushels per acre higher than the September report. The 173 million increase to beginning stocks based on the September 30th Grain Stocks Report along with this week’s increase in yield results in a carryout of 1.849 billion bushels. The 1.849-billion-bushel carryout represents a 11.34% stock to use ratio which historically results in CBOT values in the $4.25 – $4.50 range.
Globally, 2026/27 ending stocks were raised by 8.3 MMT to 280.44 MMT, below the average pre-report estimate but within the range (273.0 to 310.5 range). This reflects an increase in beginning stocks for the United States and Argentina and increased production in the United States.
USDA 2026 US Yield (Bushels per acre)
| USDA October 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA September 2026 | |
| Corn | 181.2 | 177.7 | 178.5 |
| Soybeans | 53.1 | 52.8 | 52.8 |
USDA 2026 US Production (Billion Bushels)
| USDA October 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA September 2026 | |
| Corn | 16.034 | 15.721 | 15.800 |
| Soybeans | 4.562 | 4.534 | 4.648 |
USDA 2026/27 US Carryout (Billion Bushels)
| USDA October 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA September 2026 | |
| Corn | 1,849 | 1.670 | 1.567 |
| Soybeans | .315 | .305 | .310 |
| Wheat | .740 | .721 | .717 |
USDA 2026/27 World Carryout (Million Tonnes)
| USDA October 2026 | Average Trade Est. | USDA September 2026 | |
| Corn | 280.44 | 273.78 | 272.10 |
| Soybeans | 124.28 | 123.33 | 124.02 |
| Wheat | 276.04 | 276.63 | 276.29 |
Harvest progress was limited in last week’s report with 23% of the crop reported complete compared to 27% on average. Weather was favorable across most of the Midwest last week which should result in better progress in this afternoon’s report.
Where do prices go from here? Following the bearish news from the last couple reports I look for the markets to stabilize. Lower prices should support demand both domestically and on the export front. We are still early in the harvest stages of the 2026 crop, but it wont be long before producers will be making 2027 planting decisions. The job of the market is to ration supply and demand. When comparing fall of 2027 values corn holds a small advantage but has lost a lot of ground recently. Any additional selling could swing that pendulum. With current demand, we need corn acreage and yield to hold constant which should add support to the corn market long term.
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 10/12/2026 | Crop Progress |
| 11/10/2026 | Crop Production |
