Week Ending 10-16-2026

We had a weaker trade this past week as the markets focused on harvest progress. December corn ended the week 6 cents lower while March and May closed 8 cents lower. The funds ended the week long 227,925 corn contracts and long 227807 soybean contracts.

While the USDA estimates for the US crop continue to keep pressure on the markets as harvest progresses along, private estimates for Brazil’s crop added pressure. Conab (Brazil’s version of the USDA) is estimating a total corn crop for the upcoming season at 148 mmt (million metric ton) which is 9 mmt larger than the USDA’s current forecast. Conab puts the growth on a 4.9% expansion in acreage despite the discussions about rising costs associated with fuel and fertilizer. 9 mmt or 350 million bushels in extra supplies, if recognized by the USDA could have an impact on futures. This would be 350 million bushel more export-competing supplies and could translate to a smaller US export program.

Harvest progress had a 10% increase week over week and is currently 33% complete. This compares to 39% on average. Weather was favorable across most of the Midwest last week which should result in better progress in this afternoon’s report.

December futures closed below the 200-day moving average of $4.79 on Friday setting the tone for bearish trade in the coming week. The next support level in December corn is at $4.70 followed by $4.57. I could see us testing the first support level early this week, but don’t expect to reach the second without some outside news.

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