The corn markets continue their attempt to fend off bearish news as harvest plugs along. Harvest pressure, bearish soybean and wheat markets along with the upcoming election kept corn on the defensive this past week. December futures ended the week 8 cents lower while March and May futures closed 9 and 10 cents lower respectively. The funds have exited more than 200,000 of their long position in corn since the bearish October WASDE. The funds ended the week long 99,113 corn contracts and long 190,781 soybean contracts.
Export sales reported by the USDA showed another declining week, down .2 mmt (million metric ton) from last week and down .5 mmt from last year. Commitments are 23.5 mmt vs 35.4 mmt the same week a year ago. The USDA is forecasting only a 3.3 mmt decline year over year. Mexico’s purchases, or lack thereof, are a large share of the pullback. The US’s competitive advantage to Mexico remains in place but is slipping in other destinations.
Brazil’s producers are aggressively marketing their corn crop. Brazil’s first corn crop is 16% priced, the highest percent in five years. The second corn crop has been marketed at an average pace, and 13% of it is priced as of last week.
Rain is in the forecast for this week, with widespread 1–3 inches across the Midwest that should slow remaining harvest. For many this is welcome even if it pushes corn harvest further behind average as it will ease the pressure and allow end users and elevators to make some space. States with the most left include OH, MI, IA, NE, KS, and MN.
Harvest has been progressing by leaps and bounds over the past couple weeks. Last week’s report showed the crop was 60% complete compared to 44% the previous week. While still lagging the five-year average, things are moving along nicely thanks to an unseasonably warm fall.
We are just over a week away from the November WASDE which should have traders’ attention. Historically this report would not carry a lot of weight but given the big changes we saw in the October WASDE, many will be paying close attention to see if the USDA pulls back from their last report, piles on more bearish news or kicks the can. All three are equally in play, so play your cards close to your vest!
Upcoming reports
| Date | Report |
| 11/2/2026 | Crop Progress |
| 11/10/2026 | Crop Production |
