Good morning,

Markets are softer to start the week with corn down 6, wheat down 8 and soybeans unchanged.

Following last Thursday’s report and the three-day weekend, traders are back in a bearish mood to start the quarter. Last week the USDA reported their producer survey shows the US is planning on 90 million acres of corn vs 94.6 million last year. This was lower than most estimates heading into the report. Soybean acres came in at 86.51 million acres vs 83.60 million last year.

Total principal crop acreage dropped 6.3 million acres from 2023. This is one of the largest losses of all crop acreage without a weather reason. Other large declines have been accompanied by drought, flood, and prevent plant situations. None of these exist today which means the March planting intentions should be the lowest we see for the upcoming crop season.

Thursday’s acreage survey isn’t the final word on US plantings and will most likely change over the next few months. Historically the June survey can show material changes in producer plans due to planting weather or merely changes in the whim of the producer based on prices. The bottom line of the graphs below is that there is enough acreage flexibility in the next 2 months to completely remake the production situation in corn and soybeans.

Last week’s rally following the report was met with a lot of selling old and new crop corn which appears to be a smart move by producers and commercials. Anyone that became bullish following that report needs to keep in mind that we are dealing with ending stocks north of 2 billion bushels.

Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard