Good morning,

Markets are mixed to open the day with corn down 4, soybeans up 4 and wheat down 24.

It looks like the markets in energies, metals and most commodities are awaiting the outcome of developments in the Ukraine war. A Russian ultimatum to Ukrainian troops in Mariupol to surrender or die expired on Wednesday afternoon with no mass capitulation, but the commander of a unit believed to be holding out in the besieged city said his forces could survive just days or hours.  Thousands of Russian troops backed by artillery and rocket barrages were attempting to advance elsewhere in what Ukrainian officials call the Battle of the Donbas – a push by Moscow to seize two eastern provinces it claims on behalf of separatists.

China’s soybean output is set to increase by 25.8% in 2022, an agriculture ministry official said on Wednesday, amid major efforts to boost oilseed production. The land planted with soybeans will expand by 16.7% this year, said Tang Ke, director general of the market department, under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. China, the world’s top importer of soybeans, brought in 3.37 million tonnes last month from the U.S., down from 7.18 million a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.

The current forecast for the Central US and Upper Plains is wet over the next 10 days.  There will be two more storms move through the Midwest in the next week, then we look to have warmer and drier weather.  Heavy rains will fall in the Delta of up to 4-5 inches in the next week and the Central US will see 1-3 inches.  The only strong evidence of drought is out in Nebraska, Western Kansas and South Dakota.

These markets are due for a major correction at any time.  The Russians think they are on the verge of a major victory, and that very well may be the case.  I think that’s why prices are backing off.  All the late buyers of corn, beans and wheat are holding very risky positions as we are at decade high prices.  There are more things that can turn negative than positive at this point. 


Have a Safe Day!


Garry Gard