Good morning,

Markets are mixed this morning with corn up 4 and soybeans down 23.

Extended rainfall and the potential for US producers to hit the USDA’s bean acreage estimates are working the markets this morning. It also looks like some of the break in the markets today is being led by crude oil. Traders are eying increased interest rates and the slowdown in China due to covid as reasons we may see decreased demand.

The 10-day forecast for US weather is very wet, which is not what models were showing last week going home.  The Central US will see heavy coverage from 1-5 inches in the next week. Several storm systems move around the US in the 15-day forecast.  This is not one event, but many.

Friday afternoon’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report showed all U.S. cattle on feed as of April 1 at 12.105 million head, or 101.7% of last year—that was well ahead of the average 100.4% trade estimate. March placements came in at 99.6% of LY, also well ahead of the 92.2% guess, with March marketing’s much closer to matching trade expectations at 98.0%, versus the 98.2% guess.

Today’s finish in the markets should set the tone for the week. Will the wet forecast and increased cattle numbers support the market or will crude oil and historically high prices push for more selloff.

I traveled to Louisville over the weekend and was surprised by the lack of field work that was being done. Aside from central IL (Champaign) area, It looked to me like fields were fit and there should have been a lot more activity. I saw tillage equipment and planters rolling on the trip, but not the numbers I would have expected.


Have a Safe Day!


Garry Gard