Markets opened up limit in corn this morning and 30 higher in soybeans. They have since fallen off those levels but are still very bullish.
The 10 day forecast for Brazil is dry! There is almost no chance for rain of any sort in the Southern half of all Brazil. The dry corn area is getting smoked. The limited rainfall is said to be reducing the crop by at least 20% and would come directly out of exports. The winter crop would be 68-70 mmt and exports would drop to 9-12 mmt. The total crop in Brazil will be lower than 100 mmt. Argentina is likely to raise export taxes as well to slow inflation and bring in more revenue. It already slaps a 33% tax on international soybean exports; 31% on soymeal and soyoil; and 12% on corn and wheat. This is the reason for the sharp rally in July corn futures.
The trade is expecting 18-20% of the corn planted vs the 5 year average of 20%. Spring wheat plantings are expected to be 28-30% vs 24% average and 7-9% of the beans should be planted vs 5% average.
The 10 day forecast for US weather has a fair amount of rain from the Central Grain belt and South. The Northwestern grain belt will see light chances, with the drought holding in place. Temps will really warm up this week hitting 80 degrees locally tomorrow. Temps will be mostly normal for the 10 and 15 day run.
Have a Safe Day!