Weaker markets again this morning as corn opened 3 lower while soybeans and wheat are both 2 lower.
Russia says they have little to no interest in renewing the Black Sea grain agreement with Ukraine. The current deal is set to expire May 18th. Ukraine is also facing pressure from other neighboring countries with export bans/limits being imposed on grain moved over land. Despite these growing concerns, the market has yet to show signs of concern with Ukraine’s recent export success fresh on the minds of traders. Since a year ago, the USDA’s corn export estimate for Ukraine has risen from below 10 MMT to above 25 MMT. If realized, this would be larger than the expectations for Argentina.
The grain markets are attempting to catch their breath and come up for air after a streak of selling pressure has sent corn down 40 cents and soybeans down 70 cents over the last 5 trading sessions. A slowdown in planting progress was confirmed on Monday afternoon, but the market feels confident about planting prospects moving. As we enter May the forecast is moving at least a little warmer. Rain is pushed to the South as a dome develops up North ending this massive cold front.
A lot of yesterdays and today’s pressure can be attributed to outside markets and money flow, but analysts are already making early predictions about a bumper US crop and more comfortable domestic carryout situation for next year.
Have a Safe Day!