Markets are mixed this morning with old corn up 3, new corn down 3 and soybeans up 8 across the board.
NASS rated the winter wheat good/excellent at 53% this week vs 62% a year ago. U.S. Spring Wheat planted was 3% versus 3% a year ago, 2% average. U.S. Corn planted was 2% versus 2% last year, and 2% average. Much of the wheat crop is poor to very poor at 16%. Some of this wheat crop is going to get ripped up if the yield potential is not there. Spring wheat is also going to give way to some acres of corn and beans with where price ratios are headed. Wheat is an unpopular crop and acres could end up at 100 year lows.
Bloomberg’s estimates for Friday’s WASDE report put corn ending stocks at 1.379 billion bushel vs. 1.502 billion last month. Soybeans are estimated at 118 million vs. 120 million last month. Thoughts are that the USDA will revise their export numbers this month to accommodate the rapid pace we have been selling to China thru the first quarter of the year. Through March 25, the total commitments of US corn were at 2.588 billion bushels already reaching the USDA’s 2.600 billion bushels export projection. Expectations are that they could raise t 100-200 million bushel in Friday’s report. The big question that no one knows is what will China decide to ship by the end of August vs. rolling forward to next year? That decision could dramatically impact prices.
Have a Safe Day!