Good morning,


Markets are higher this morning with corn up 8 and soybeans up 25.



Monday’s crop conditions and buildup to Friday’s report are moving the markets higher again this morning. Friday the WASDE will release their Supply and Demand estimates for the month. Part of this release will be an update on yield and potentially an acreage update (in 3 states).


Crop conditions have impacted the yield estimates submitted by private analysts with the average yield of the analysts 1.1 bu/acre below the USDA’s modeled 177 number in July. The published range is 173.2 to 177.6 bu/acre showing the general pessimism that goes beyond the average. The trade is regularly pessimistic the August USDA’s yield number. This is probably because the improvement in US corn yield potential at a trend level is placing it at new records annually. The hardest thing to do is to forecast a record yield with less-than-optimal weather. Not only is the yield in question but also acreage is up for revision, in three states only.

Next week we will see little rain fall around the Central US.  The ridge is moving up into the Northwest.  The heat is leaving Texas and will allow for rain to move into the Western Plains.  It’s been bone dry for months and crop conditions are not good.  Looking at the 15-day forecast there are several little pop-up showers in the Central US, but no organized rain events. Those that missed rain are in for a tough August.


Have a Safe Day!


Garry Gard