Good morning,
Grain markets are slightly lower across the board this morning as traders are gearing up for the much anticipated report that will be released at 11 a.m. Also, I believe the lower tone is in part of some beneficial rains that moved through the Corn Belt this weekend. Currently, corn is down 7 cents and soybeans are down 10 cents. The heaviest amounts of rain accumulated this weekend in the Western Corn Belt and lightest in the Far East. There is currently another system moving through the heart of the Corn Belt this morning and it is expected to bring much needed rains to the Eastern Corn Belt through tomorrow. After the beneficial push of rains moves through, extended forecasts show mostly warm and dry weather moving into the last half of August. There is little left to be said before the USDA’s data release this morning. Either the bulls or the bears will be happy with the release of the data, but either way at least some uncertainty will be solved and there will be a better benchmark for our crops going forward. Much of the focus will be on the new crop harvested area and expected yield number for corn. With the magnitude of these numbers we expect the price reaction to be quite swift and quite violent in either direction as the market will try and re-balance the new information. Included is the average estimates of what analysts have predicted the USDA will release for new crop production and ending stocks.
USDA 2019-20 Corn and Soybean production
USDA Aug. 2019-20 estimate Average of anlysts’ estimates Range of analysts’ estimates USDA July 2019-20 estimate
Corn
Planted Acres 90.000 87.998 83.494-89.800 91.700
Harvested Acres 82.000 80.050 76.114-81.900 83.600
Yield 169.5 164.9 161.0-167.2 166.0
Production 13.901 13.193 12.723-13.550 13.875
Soybeans
Planted Acres 76.700 81.006 78.000-83.500 80.000
Harvested Acres 75.900 79.890 77.300-82.800 79.300
Yield 48.5 47.6 46.0-49.0 48.5
Production 3.680 3.800 3.633-3.974 3.845
USDA 2018-19 U.S. Grain and Soybean ending stocks
USDA Aug. 2018-19 end-stock estimates Average of Analysts’ estimates Range of Analysts’ estimates USDA July 2018-19 end-stock estimates
Corn 2.360 2.392 2.220-2.490 2.340
Soybeans 1.070 1.065 0.988-1.124 1.050
USDA 2019-20 U.S. Grain and Soybean ending stocks
USDA Aug. 2019-20 end-stock estimates Average of Analysts’ estimates Range of Analysts’ estimates USDA July 2019-20 end-stock estimates
Corn 2.181 1.620 1.281-1.900 2.010
Soybeans 0.755 0.821 0.607-0.950 0.795
Have a great day!
Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com
