Good Morning,
The selling continues!! Corn is down 4 and soybeans are down 8 as last Friday’s WASDE reports continue to weigh on the markets. The report that was a copulation of producer and field sample surveys forecasted record yields in both corn and soybeans. Corn came in at 178.4 bpa and soybeans at 51.6 bpa. Higher production in both resulted in greater ending stocks, particularly soybeans where the stocks to use ratio jumped to 18.44%. Corn stocks to use ratio is currently projected at 11%. The current price of corn on the CBOT is the lowest price we have seen with the stocks to use ratio this low since the inception of the RFSII mandate. The 178.4 bpa appears to be strongly driven by higher population counts combined with kernel length counts. The remainder of the season will prove whether the USDA’s assumptions of test weight support the 178 number.
It was interesting to note that the majority of the increase in yield came from less than half of the major corn producing states. Crop problems in some states were more than offset by the following states:
Illinois = 20 bpa above trend
Indiana = 16 bpa above trend
Iowa = 12 bpa above trend
Nebraska = 12 bpa above trend
Despite the record yield projections in corn, the market in my opinion is still undervalued considering the stocks to use ratio. Historically a stocks to use ratio of 10-12% equates to a cbot price of $4. We are currently trading at $3.70 for the CZ18 contract. Is this underpriced due to tariff issues, or will we see the market come back to the $4 level without tariff resolutions is the question. I believe that without some tariff resolution, we will not see $4 on the CBOT prior to harvest.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com
