Good Morning,

Markets were higher overnight with corn up 6 and soybeans up 10. Concerns over a dry LH August and ideas that China has more to buy is moving the market today.
The USDA pegged the 2019/20 corn carryout at 2.228 billion bu. The 2020/21 carryout is expected to be 2.756 billion bu. They increased the corn yield to 181.8 bu/ac vs last months 178.5 bu/ac. The USDA estimated new record corn yields in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and South Dakota.(WI is projected to be 181 bpa. The USDA did acknowledge the yield estimate in the
Midwest may be already obsolete as it prefaced the report with a statement that all estimates
were prior to the storm that crossed the US a couple days ago. The trade is onto speculating how much yield can be trimmed from the IA/IL region as part of the wind damage. Derecho discussions continue with how much crop was lost to the high winds. Iowa’s Ag Dept. said that 10 mln acres of Ag land was “affected” by the winds. Of the 30 mln acres of Ag land in Iowa there are 13.5 mln corn, 9.3 mln soy, and 1 mln hay. Only the corn crop was really affected in any way. Declarations like this usually precede requests for Federal funds. By no means is this much of an estimate of actual damage to the crop. “Pro”Farmer starts its Midwest “virtual” tour August 17th which should shed some light on the damage. The real answer will not be known until the combines hit the field this fall.
The 2019/20 US soybean carryout was estimated at 615 million bu. while the 2020/21 carryout is expected to be 610 million bu. WASDE projected soybean yields to average 53.3 bpa compared to 49.8 last month. Record yields are expected in Nebraska, South Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois and Ohio.
The biggest surprise to me was that they increased feed usage by 75 million bushels to 5925. This 6% year over year growth assumes livestock consumption will exceed its normal per head usage due to a larger crop.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard