Good morning,

Yesterday’s selloff continues this morning with corn down 9 and soybeans down 12.

In news out of the Ukraine, the first ship carrying Ukrainian grain to world markets since Russia’s invasion blocked exports more than five months ago is on track to safely arrive in Istanbul on Tuesday night, Turkey said, amid Ukrainian fears it could still run into problems.  Turkey expects roughly one grain ship to leave Ukrainian ports each day as long as the safe passage agreement holds, a senior Turkish official, who asked to remain anonymous, said on Tuesday.

Last night’s corn condition ratings were steady this week at 61% good/excellent, still down from 64% last year and the 65% five-year average pace; corn silking and doughing remained behind their respective paces at 80% and 26%, respectively. Soybean ratings rose a point to 60% g/ex, even with last year but below the 63% 5YA; blooming and pod-setting also stayed behind their metrics at 79% and 44%, respectively.

Brazil yesterday raised their 2021/22 second-crop corn output estimate from 90.7 to almost 93.0 MMT, up from 59.2 MMT last year. The initial 2022/23 soybean crop estimate came in at a record 152.6 MMT, up almost 20% from last year due to nearly a 4% increase in plantings and a sharp rise in national yields. ‘22/23 exports are seen at an even 100 MMT, up from 77 MMT in ‘21/22. First-crop corn was pegged at 30.3 MMT, up almost 15% from last year despite a small loss in planting acreage this coming season. Total corn output this year is pegged at 125.5 MMT, vs 121.6 MMT this year.

The 10-day forecast is a mix of what we saw with the GFS and EU models yesterday.  Some light rain is forecast to pop up in Iowa and heavier amounts are forecast in the Southeast.  Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio could get up to an inch in the next week.  Hot temps are moving into the Plains where moisture will be limited.  The forecast is not as bearish this morning as the two maps that were put out yesterday.  There is still some rain on the radar, but Iowa, Nebraska and Western Minnesota have been short on rain for the last month.


Have a Safe Day!


Garry Gard