Good Morning,
Grain markets are slightly higher this morning with corn up 3 and soybeans up 5.
We saw some strength in the markets yesterday as Ag Secretary Perdue said that President trump is going to come up with something for the ethanol industry to help create demand that will support the US Farmer. To me this sounds very similar to the comments we have been hearing for the last year and a half about negotiations with China. What is being said and what is actually getting done are two different things. Ethanol margins remain under pressure forcing plants across the Midwest to slowdown or shutdown despite lower corn prices.
The FSA took an unusual step on Tuesday afternoon of updating the reported “certified acreage” and “prevent planting” data instead of waiting until the standard monthly update on September 12th. They increased planted acreage by 821,000 acres from their July report. With this adjustment they are now 3.3 million acres below the USDA’s August report of 90.0. The 3.3 million acres is only 3.5% below the total USDA acres. Soybean acreage was increased by 783,000 acres in their report and now is only 1.9 million below the USDA’s 76.7 million. In my opinion this only strengthens the USDA’s report as there is a large contingency of producers that do not file with NASS and do not carry crop insurance.
So far we don’t see any evidence of a frost/freeze event for much of the next couple of weeks with the forecast actually offering a chance for a little warming in the 11-15 day period. Weather models are going to struggle right now as they try to determine precisely where Hurricane Dorian will make landfall and its ensuing track. Dorian is expected to become an intense category 3 storm when it does come ashore causing considerable damage throughout the Southeast in the process.
Look for the markets to trade sideways to slightly lower as we approach first notice day for September contracts and a three day weekend.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com
