Good Morning,

The markets look to stage a Turnaround Tuesday after reports out yesterday morning on CNBC that President Trump was not prepared to rollback US tariffs on Chinese goods. Additionally, it has been reported that the two sides continue to butt heads over the size of US Ag purchases. The word that we are getting is that President had not made a final decision on the tariffs; however, the situation remains fluid with negotiations on a Phase 1 deal occurring on a daily basis.
Prices on the board continue to look cheap and should help to entice some activity in the export markets. For the second consecutive day we have a sale of corn to Unknown Destination reported on the daily system and beans out of the Gulf are the cheapest in the World. With US grain and soy now much more competitively priced we have begun to see business pick up. Yesterday we saw a sale for 132 TMT of corn to Unknown and then again today we got another for 191 TMT of corn to Unknown Destinations.
Now that the US harvest is nearly complete, the pro’s focus will now shift to South American weather and at least for now the forecast looks pretty favorable over the next couple of weeks. The major models remain in good agreement in calling for an active wet weather pattern settling in for the balance of November.
The December corn board is currently trading 27 cents below this same date last year. Cash prices this fall have been much better than last fall and its all due to basis levels across the Midwest. This is one big reason that I believe producers should be locking in basis contracts for fall and spring/summer delivery. Any move higher in the CBOT is going to result in weaker basis levels.

Corn is up 3 and soybeans are up 4 to start the day.

Have a Safe Day

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

November 15, 2019

Good Morning,

Corn is down 2 and soybeans are up 4 to start the day.

More back and forth talks about the US and China, and more of the same coming out of the White House. Comments that they are getting close to a partial deal continue to be the talk, but still no deal.

The decision by China to allow US poultry into the country had to have helped, lifting the ban from 2015. If the US government is feeling the doors more wide open a trade agreement is much more likely. Unfortunately this has nothing to do with more free trade, and everything to do with rampant food inflation brought by AFS.

I still believe that we are along ways away from any deal getting done that would significantly support US grain markets. In my opinion, the Chinese still hold the key to getting a deal done with all the pressure on President Trump.

South American weather has been very favorable with rains moving across Brazil and Argentina which is very welcome. There are only small pockets of Argentina and North Eastern Brazil that remain dry. This should support their intentions to plant more corn and beans than last year which will continue to put pressure on US exports.

Forecasts locally for the next week look favorable for harvest progress with slightly warmer and dryer conditions in the forecast thru next Thursday.

Have a Safe Weekend!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

November 13, 2019

Good Morning,

Prices over at the CBOT were a little lower last night with follow-through buying absent after the pros were remained in the dark on any new detail of the Phase 1 trade agreement. Corn is down 2, soybeans are down 1 and wheat is down 4 cents.

Radar shows more snow moving out of the western Corn Belt this morning. Accumulations with this system don’t look to be especially heavy and will likely melt quickly with temperatures expected to moderate early next week. Mother Nature looks like she will cooperate into early December and allow harvest to get back on track. Corn harvest last night was reported at 66% complete for the US compared to the 5 year average of 85%. Wisconsin came in at 30% compared to the 5 year average of 65%. This is the third slowest pace for corn harvest on record, with the rates across the upper Midwest and Plains running well behind normal rate.

President trump offered no details on the trade situation in yesterday’s speech which left traders with no direction on the trade front. Fundamentals will be the trade for now as we are still dealing with a 1.91 billion bushel carryout.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

November 12, 2019

Good Morning,

Overnight corn and beans were unchanged after yesterday’s selloff of 14 cents in soybeans and 4 cents in corn. The markets were under heaving fund selling yesterday with traders monitoring comments from President Trump. The markets closed at their lowest level since the September stock report. The USDA’s November report removed most any chance of bullish surprises with acreage and yield. One bit of hope to hang on to is the correlation to the direction of the Oct-Nov yield change compared to the Nov-Jan yield change. (chart below)The problem with this is that we need to wait two months for the data and it may be too late for the market to react. Once we get into January the trade will start to focus on the coming years acres and production instead of what is behind us. With ta 167 bpa yield and planted acres at 94 million, next years carryout looks to be right in line with this years at 1.906 billion bushels. Keep in mind this is using a 167 bpa, which is what we are using this year with poor growing conditions. The more this increases, the less likely we are to see this corn market at the current levels next year.
I would advise producers to take advantage of historically strong basis levels for the crop they are harvesting now and start to lock in some of next years production at current cash levels.

NASS crop progress will be out later today with expectations for corn harvest to be 65% complete and soybean harvest 85% complete. Drying issues continue with the shortage of LP and the crop not drying down much in the field with later planted varieties. This reminds me of 2009 only on a larger scale when harvest drug into December.

The trade will be awaiting President Trump’s update on the Phase 1 deal with China later today.(11am central) My guess is that he would be positive about the trade deal, but not commit to anything. Any negative comments from the President today could be volatile to the markets.

[rl_gallery id=”3291″]

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com

Good Morning,

Happy Veteran’s Day and Thank You to everyone that has and still does serve our nation!

Weaker markets to start the week off with corn down 2 and soybeans down 9.
The trade negotiations with China appear to have slowed again over the weekend as president Trump denied that he has agreed to rollback tariffs.

With Fridays report behind us and no major surprises in the USDA’s numbers from the October report, traders will now have little fundamental news to move the markets for a couple months. The weekly progress report will be delayed until tomorrow due to Veterans Day. Trade is looking for tomorrows report to show 65% of the nations corn and 85% of the nations soybeans harvested.

There are no major weather changes in the 1-5 day forecast for Brazil with rains still expected to help replenish the moisture profiles across the central and northern soybean growing regions.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard
920-348-6844
ggard@didionmilling.com