June 28, 2024
Good morning,
It’s report day! The USDA Grain Stocks and Acreage report will be released at 11:00am today. Early this morning corn and soybeans are slightly higher as traders’ position for the report. Check back after 11:00 for the updated numbers.
USDA June 1 Stocks (Billion Bushels)
| June 2024 | June 2023 | Average Est. | |
| Corn | 4.993 | 4.103 | 4.873 |
| Soybeans | .969 | .796 | .962 |
| Wheat | .702 | .570 | .684 |
USDA June Acreage (Million Acres)
| June 1, 2024 | March 31, 2024 | Average Est. | |
| Corn | 91.475 | 90.036 | 90.353 |
| Soybeans | 86.100 | 86.510 | 86.753 |
| Wheat | 47.240 | 47.498 | 47.657 |
Producers are advised to get some old and new crop sales on the books before todays report. Unless we see a dramatic drop in corn acres, prices will struggle to move higher.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
June 24, 2024
Good morning,
Markets are down 7 in corn and up 35 in soybeans this morning.
With the key Stocks and Acres update on Friday, we could see some short covering later this week. I do expect a lower crop rating this afternoon, but nothing severe. The weather forecast into the July 4th weekend looks positive for the crops which will limit any market rally unless Friday’s report is bullish.
There are only a handful of sessions left to trade before the key Stocks and Acreage reports are released. Growers with too much old corn still unpriced face some difficult decisions. Be sure and get to a more comfortable position on old and new crop sales prior to the June 28th report.
USDA June 1 Stocks (billion bushels)
| USDA June 2024 | Average Est. | USDA June 2023 | |
| Corn | 4.873 | 4.103 | |
| Soybeans | .962 | .796 | |
| Wheat | .684 | .570 |
USDA 2024 June Acreage (million acres)
| USDA June 2024 | USDA March 31 | Average Est. | |
| Corn | 90.036 | 90.353 | |
| Soybeans | 86.510 | 86.753 | |
| All Wheat | 47.498 | 47.657 | |
| Winter Wheat | 34.135 | 34.197 | |
| Spring Wheat | 11.335 | 11.340 | |
| Durum | 2.028 | 1.998 |
Have a safe day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
May 24, 2024
Good morning,
Markets are quiet to start the day with both corn and soybeans up 1 cent.
The direction of the grain markets is starting to change slightly as planting progress figures track near average and concerns around a 2019 type situation dissipate. While the crop will get planted, we must acknowledge planting conditions have not been ideal during the last couple weeks and questionable stands are out there, especially in IA where rains have been the heaviest. I don’t think we have enough concern to warrant a yield cut from the USDA in June. We may learn new information in the coming weeks that could change that, but I wouldn’t project it today. I want to continue to reiterate the importance of taking advantage of this weather premium to make sales of both old and new crop corn.
There will be no markets on Monday as the trade honors Memorial Day.
Have a Safe Weekend!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
May 21, 2024
Good morning,
Markets are softer to open the day with corn down 3 and soybeans down 10.
Planting progress moved ahead of the rains and traders are saying it was better than expected by about 3 points. Corn planting progress advanced from 49% to an even 70% complete as of Sunday night, just below the 71% five-year average pace. Emergence of rose from 23% to 40% this week, a point ahead of average.
Soybean planting advanced from 35% to 52% complete which is ahead of the 49% 5 year average. Emergence went from 16% to 26%, ahead of the 21% 5 year average.
Rains spanned across the central/northern corn belt over the past 24 hours, heaviest from NE through IA into southern WI, and that system remains in the northern belt through today. Extended maps remain on the wet side of normal but finally start to push those heavy rains out to the southeast, with drier weather moving in from the northwest by the 11-15 day in particular. Temps remain above-normal right into early June.
There are plenty of weather problems around the world so I don’t think the set back in the markets goes much further. The maps don’t show a significant change in the weather yet, but wet weather markets are hard to get moving. We may have to get closer to the prevent plant date to see if there is a story.
Have a safe day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
May 13, 2024
Good morning,
Markets were softer overnight with corn down 1 and soybeans down 4.
Expectations were for minimal changes to both corn and soybean carryout for 23/24 and that is essentially what we saw. The corn carryout was taken down 100 mbu thanks to a 50 mbu increase to both export and ethanol demand. The soybean balance remained unchanged as expected.
There were some adjustments to South American production. Argentina corn was lowered 2 million tons while Brazilian corn was lowered 2 million tones and soybeans 1 million tons. The market rallied sharply after the report, but it really felt like we were trading weather after the news. The largest input of the day late on Friday was the COT report. Massive fund buying was noted, and based on late week action we can probably start assuming the short fund position in our grain space is mostly liquidated. So, will they get long for a shot at a weather problem this summer? We don’t see it, but momentum is real. Once it gets rolling, it’s hard to stop.
This past week brought at least a half an inch of rain to a majority of the central and eastern corn belt with some heavier totals in northern and western IA and parts of the SE belt. We currently have some rain moving across eastern NE and through IA and that system could expand throughout the day. The next 7 days are expected to be dry for a majority of the northern belt including northern IA, but the southern and eastern corn belt is expected to receive heavier rains. The current 6-10 looks wetter than normal, especially for IA and the current 8-14 day continues to hold chances for precipitation above normal and brings in some cooler temps.
Have a Safe Day!
Garry Gard
920-348-6844
