Good morning,

All grain markets are starting the week off lower with corn down 5, soybeans down 10 and wheat down 7.

A drone strike killed three U.S. service members today in Jordan, creating fears of an escalating regional war in the Middle East. The strike by Iran-backed militants wounded at least 34 other service members. Iran denies involvement, but it’s widely believed that Iran is involved in the dozens of attacks on U.S. forces in recent months, with today’s fatalities bound to raise political pressure on the Biden Administration to have a strong response in an election year.

Not much has materially changed since late last week. Funds continue to add on to their net short positions amid good weather across South America, promoting a good harvest pace for soybeans in Brazil followed by rapid second corn crop planting progress. Argentina’s weather forecast for the week two is wetter than that of Sunday.

Argentine production estimates are rising to further offset losses in Brazil. The focus will soon shift to the U.S. Midwest planting season. Corn must lose acres this year to avoid a ballooning balance sheet. Some analysts are proclaiming that soybeans must gain acres to avoid being tight in the year ahead. I do expect soybeans to gain acres, and corn to lose some, but I disagree that soybeans “must” gain acres.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is down 2 and soybeans are down 7 in the overnight trade.

The USDA will release a lot of reports on Friday at 11am including the USDA WASDE, Crop Production, Quarterly Grain Stocks. Trade estimates for the reports were released and as expected, wide ranges are seen for December 1 U.S. stocks, U.S. corn & soybean production, and South American corn & soybean output. The average trade guess calls for no change in the U.S. corn & soybean yield.  For December 1 U.S. stocks, the consensus is for grain stocks to expand from a year ago and soybean inventories to contract.

The average guesses for Friday’s report are listed below.

USDA 2023 Harvested Area (Million Acres)

USDA 2023 Yield (Bu/Acre)

USDA 2023 Production (Billion Bushels)

USDA 2023/24 Carryout (Billion Bushels)

South American 2023/24 Production (Million Tonnes)

Producers should get firm offers in place with buyers ahead of Fridays report. Historically this report is a market mover. Don’t be surprised to see some major moves higher or lower on Friday.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Overnight corn was down 1, soybeans up 1 and wheat down 1.

Corn and soybeans have done a lot of trading to the downside to start the year and yesterday was just another one of those days. The fact that we bounced and closed off yesterday’s lows is a sign that we may not go continue straight down with some big data due out on Friday. The USDA is hard to predict but the fact that we have both the WASDE and stocks report out on Friday only adds uncertainty. Personally, I don’t think we have much more risk of the downside in the short term. We could see a dip on Friday if the numbers are surprising, but I believe it would only be a one-day trade. Until we have more certainty around the Brazilian production, 4.50 CH should be a good support level.

There are rumours of China cancelling soybean purchases out of the US this week, which doesn’t come as a great surprise. Speculation is that they are cancelling due to having more certainty around the Brazilian supplies given the latest rains and forecasts for South America.

Brazil’s weather continues to perform in a helpful manner. Rain is plentiful as systems rotate through the belt the next 15 days. The 1st crop is just at its advent of harvest with 2% of the crop taken up. Even as some of the 1st crop corn is ready, 7% of the 1st crop remains unplanted which shows the spectrum that defines Brazil’s production cycle.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Markets were softer this morning with corn down 2, soybeans down 14 and wheat down 16.

Lower trade across all commodities after additional rain fell across central and northern Brazil over the weekend.

Last week’s export sales failed to reach even the low end of guesses with total corn sales at 14.5 million bushels compared to a 52.1 million bushels ten-week average. Accounting for freight, exchange rates, taxes, and tariffs the United States is more expensive out of the both the Gulf and PNW (Pacific North West) delivered into China vs. Ukraine, Brazil, and Argentina. While all these major exporters are facing logistical issues, Ukraine’s exports flows have been most affected. Right now, Brazilian corn is delivered into China about 40 cents cheaper than out of the PNW. Brazil is 40 cents cheaper delivered into China on soybeans as well vs. the PNW.

We have a big week for the markets ahead as we have WASDE/Stocks report on the 12^th with CONAB out before then on the 10^th.  Look for a lot of positioning ahead of Fridays report as traders wait to see if the USDA gives us any fireworks to move things lower or higher.

Producers’ nationwide do not have much old or new crop corn sold and should be revising plans to get more sales on for both crop years. We need a lot of changes on the demand side of things to more this market higher. If the market does move higher, it is going to be met with a lot of selling which will cap any long-term rallies. Producers are advised to contact your buyers and get old and new crop offers in place ahead of Fridays report.

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com

Good morning,

Corn is down 3 and soybeans are down 7 to start the day.

Rain in Brazil has been greater than expected which is adding to today’s selloff. With good rainfall forecasted for the next 7 days I don’t look for market support from South America.

This morning’s export sales were dismal, coming in at 14.5 million bushels, which is well below the ten-week average of 52.1 million. US corn is cheap and getting cheaper, but we are still struggling to make sales. The strength of the US dollar, a record South American crop and a lack of world demand are keeping things in check.

With all this negative news and a USDA report coming next Friday that is expected to be bearish stocks, I am hoping something gives. We hit the support level in CH24 ($4.6175) that I was looking for back in November, so hopefully the floor is in. While I am not expecting it, we could see some adjustments to the acres, yield, or demand. (Let’s Hope!!)

Have a Safe Day!

Garry Gard

920-348-6844

ggard@didioninc.com