Daily Insights

July 1, 2019

Good Morning,

Markets are currently trading lower with corn down 10 cents and soybeans down 5 cents. Many traders are still left scratching their heads from the report that was released this past Friday. Following the release, there was such a backlash against some of the data that the USDA said they are going to redo the survey in July and, if need be, they will give us an updated intended acres planted on August 12th’s report. The biggest skepticism came from the corn acreage number that came in at 91.7 million acres planted. This was 5 million acres above the average of many analysts’ estimates. This sent trade in a whirlwind and on Friday corn closed 20 cents lower than the previous day of trade. As the new week begins, trade will continue to search for an answer to where the acreage number is at and what yield will turn out to be. The weather across much of the Corn Belt looks favorable in the next 6-10 days. In our area, slight to moderate chances of showers are expected throughout the week with warmer temperatures remaining. In the 11-15 day time frame, warmer temps will be giving way to a cooler pattern going forward. Overall, I believe trade will be volatile in the few weeks to come due to questionable data. I believe it will be hard for corn prices to make another jump above the highs we saw this last month. It is going to take something drastic to move corn prices with such a large acreage number looming in the mind of many traders and some favorable weather in the forecast. I would recommend calling in today to discuss the best marketing opportunities for your operation.

Have a great day!
Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com

June 28, 2019

Good Morning,

Through this morning of trade, corn is currently unchanged and soybeans are up 4 cents. Some heavy rains have moved through the Northern Corn Belt in the last 24 hours and continue into this morning. The bulk of the rain fell from southern MN to central WI where there has been reports of up to 4-6” in some areas. Chances of rain seem to have amped up a bit in the last 24 hours for the region. Rains are expected to return late this weekend and continue throughout the week next week. Some highly anticipated data from the USDA will be released at 11 a.m. and any shocks to the report is expected to cause some aggressive price movements in either way. I would recommend calling today to discuss opportunities to contract grain before and after the report. Below is the USDA June acreage and stock report estimates:

U.S planting of major crops for 2019 harvest (in million acres):
USDA June 28 estimate Average of analyst’s estimates USDA June 11 WASDE
Corn 91.7 86.662 89.8
Soybeans 80.0 84.355 84.6
All wheat 45.6 45.654 45.8

U.S. Quarterly Stocks as of June 1 (in billions of bushels):
USDA June 1 Estimate Average on analyst’s estimates USDA March 1, 2019
Corn 5.2 5.332 8.605
Soybeans 1.8 1.861 2.716
Wheat 1.0 1.100 1.591

Have a great day!
Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com

June 28, 2019

Good Morning,

Through this morning of trade, corn is currently unchanged and soybeans are up 4 cents. Some heavy rains have moved through the Northern Corn Belt in the last 24 hours and continue into this morning. The bulk of the rain fell from southern MN to central WI where there has been reports of up to 4-6” in some areas. Chances of rain seem to have amped up a bit in the last 24 hours for the region. Rains are expected to return late this weekend and continue throughout the week next week. Some highly anticipated data from the USDA will be released at 11 a.m. and any shocks to the report is expected to cause some aggressive price movements in either way. I would recommend calling today to discuss opportunities to contract grain before and after the report. Below is the USDA June acreage and stock report estimates:

U.S planting of major crops for 2019 harvest (in million acres):
USDA June 28 estimate Average of analyst’s estimates USDA June 11 WASDE
Corn – 86.662 89.8
Soybeans – 84.355 84.6
All wheat – 45.654 45.8

U.S. Quarterly Stocks as of June 1 (in billions of bushels):
USDA June 1 Estimate Average on analyst’s estimates USDA March 1, 2019
Corn – 5.332 8.605
Soybeans – 1.861 2.716
Wheat – 1.100 1.591

Have a great day!
Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com

June 27, 2019

Good Morning,

Corn and Soybeans continue to follow this week’s trend of trade with low volume and sideways price movement. Through the overnight, corn went unchanged and soybeans are up 2 cents. Wheat on the other hand traded a bit stronger and is up 7 cents. We are seeing a bit of a surge in the wheat market due to the various crop issues lingering for major global producers. The weather forecasts show chances of scattered thunderstorms in the next couple days with a dry weekend. The weather outlook for the next 10 days shows that temperatures will remain a bit warmer and we could see scattered showers throughout the week next week. Despite some chances of showers, the forecast ultimately shows drier and warmer days ahead. The drier and warmer weather is definitely welcome as we need to collect as many growing degree days as we can with the already shortened planting season. The USDA data is set to be released tomorrow at 11 a.m. giving an update on corn stocks and corn acreage. With this data markets are expected to react accordingly and trade is expected to ramp up by tomorrow afternoon. I would recommend that producers shouldn’t allow their bullish outlooks get in the way of locking in their crop at profitable levels. Curveballs are always possible with USDA reports.

Have a great day!

Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com

June 26, 2019

Good Morning,

Markets are currently trading slightly lower this morning with corn down 3 cents and soybeans down 5 cents. Weather continues to be the driver of the markets through this week of trade. The outlook for the next 10 days calls for warmer temperatures and some drier days. The much needed warmer weather should give the crops a good boost as the number of growing days are becoming crucial with this already shortened planting season. With the heavy rains behind us and more optimistic temperatures on the horizon, I believe trade will be choppy in the days to come and not move too far in one direction or the other. The highly anticipated USDA stocks/acreage report is set to be released at 11 a.m. on Friday and a lot of eyes will be on that. Also, traders will continue to keep an ear open regarding the trade talks that are expected to happen between international leaders at this week’s G20 summit meeting. If you are sitting on any old crop corn, I would recommend calling in the days to come to make sure you take advantage of the opportunities that will arise in the next few days of trade.
Have a great day!

Drake Bliss
920-348-6817
dbliss@didionmilling.com